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Water Supply System Feasibility Assessment

This model supported a technical and financial feasibility assessment for developing a new water supply system for a small city. The major uncertainties addressed include the following:

  • Whether the as-built system will have sufficient capacity, or will need to be augmented with additional costs and time;
  • Whether the water-quality of the delivered water will be acceptable. If not, an interception system would be required to prevent poorer-quality water from reaching the wells;
  • Costs and schedule for construction and operation of the system.

The following stages are simulated in this model:

  • Initial installation and field test of system capacity;
  • Decision whether system upgrade is required, do the upgrade if necessary;
  • Install pumps and carry out long-term test;
  • Decision whether low-quality water interceptor is required, install if necessary;
  • Complete the system infrastructure;
  • Commission the system;
  • Operate for 20 years, tracking income and expenses.

A financial model tracks capital costs and depreciation, and operating income and expenses for the system.

Water Supply Example Model Diagram


 

Making Better Decisions In An Uncertain World