Forecasting Electricity Demand

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Forecasting Electricity Demand from New Iron Ore Mines In the Mid West Region of Western Australia

Purpose

GoldSim was used to forecast electricity demand from new iron ore mines in the Mid West region of Western Australia. An accurate forecast was required to estimate the size of new demand from greenfield iron ore mines and assist in demonstrating the need for a new 330 kV transmission line. Regulation required that the cost analysis be conducted using discounted cash flow model.

Approach

Traditionally, this is implemented in an Excel spreadsheet using the net present value (NPV) approach; however, the spreadsheet soon became so complex that it was very difficult to audit and quite cumbersome to use. The GoldSim model, by contrast, was substantially easier to understand and follow. Moreover, GoldSm's functionality is substantially more sophisticated than available in Excel. For example, the Monte Carlo functionality in GoldSim allowed the modeling to explicitly recognize uncertainty.

Mine Operation Model
Combined Production Over Time

 

Making Better Decisions In An Uncertain World