2006 GoldSim Newsletter
The mission of
the GoldSim Technology Group is to provide state-of-the-art
software, training and expert consulting to help you understand
complex systems and make better decisions in an uncertain
world. Our GoldSim simulation software package provides the
power, flexibility and usability necessary to efficiently
simulate and understand the future behavior of complex systems
in business, engineering and science.
of the GoldSim Newsletter is to provide information that helps
you get the most out of GoldSim. Like you, we don't like getting
lots of unnecessary email in our Inbox, so we only send out
our newsletter if we have something useful to communicate.
This issue of the newsletter includes an article describing
an interesting GoldSim application associated with financial
planning, as well as the first installment of a new section
(Modeler's Corner) in which expert users share their tips
and advice. The GoldSim News section announces a new minor
release of GoldSim, describes the upcoming summer release,
and provides a final reminder about the User Conference.
Note that each Newsletter is archived on our website so you
can view prior issues.
Since this newsletter is for you, we encourage you to send
us your comments and contributions. Send your contributions
GoldSim Technology Group
Spending Your Kid's Inheritance: How to Maximize Your Retirement
Portfolio Returns While Minimizing Risk
Creating a retirement withdrawal scheduled model based upon
simulating both portfolio performance and remaining life expectancy,
coupled with periodic adjustments, produces significant improved
returns and substantially decreases risk of portfolio ruin,
when compared to traditional fixed rate withdrawal methods
over defined time horizons. This article by Gene Stout and
John Mitchell of Central Michigan University discusses an
advanced retirement planning system using GoldSim to create
the most wealth for your golden years.
Tips for Debugging a GoldSim Model
All of us at some point have built a GoldSim model, run it,
and found that the results don't seem to make any sense. Typically,
this indicates that we've got a logical problem in the model.
So how do you go about debugging such a model? This short
article provides some suggestions.
Version 9.21 of GoldSim Released
Version 9.21 is a minor upgrade that provides a number of
enhancements (particularly to how time histories can be viewed
and exported), along with some bug fixes. Although none of
these updates and bug fixes are critical, it is recommended
that all active users upgrade to the latest version. For users
with active subscriptions, upgrading is as simple as downloading
the install file, and installing the software. It is not necessary
to re-register your license.
All current members of the GoldSim
Subscription Program can download Version 9.21 from the
GoldSim Resource Center (GRC).
Beyond Version 9.21
Here are some of the things that we are working on for our
next version (code named Glacier), which we will release in
Stochastic Optimization. The Optimization capability
introduced in Version 9 will be enhanced to allow you
to optimize uncertain systems. It's going to take some
time to run these analyses, but you will be able to address
problems such as "Adjust my pricing scheme so as
to maximize my expected revenues, while having no more
than a 10% chance of going broke."
Router element. This new element will allow you
to route an incoming flow to multiple demands, based on
specified priorities. This element is likely to be particularly
useful for those of you simulating water resource and
material handling systems.
Two-dimensional Monte Carlo. We're adding a capability
for you to embed one GoldSim model inside another. This
should be particularly useful for cases where you need
to separate the effects of uncertainty from randomness/variability.
You will be able to have an outer Monte Carlo model that
samples the uncertain parameters, and an inner model that
simulates system realization subject to random effects.
Interrupt Element. This new element will allow
you to specify a condition that will cause the simulation
to pause (or completely stop) and produce a user-defined
message to be displayed.
As always, we encourage our users to send their requests
and suggestions for improvements to GoldSim. If you have a
specific request, please contact us at email@example.com.
GoldSim User Conference to be Held in Vancouver, British
Columbia, June 6-7, 2006
It is not too late to register for the 2006 GoldSim User
Conference. The conference will be held in Vancouver, British
Columbia, Canada on Tuesday and Wednesday, June 6-7, 2006.
Prior to the conference, we will offer a complimentary one-day
Basic GoldSim training and refresher course on June 5, 2006.
We are excited about this year's conference, which will be
a terrific forum for you to share experiences with other users
and the GoldSim developers, and to provide input for the future
development of GoldSim.
The agenda for the two-day conference includes workshops
and seminars to improve your GoldSim skills, presentation
of a number of invited papers from our most experienced and
knowledgeable users on topics of general interest, a poster
session so you can see how other users are applying GoldSim,
a model contest so you can show off your GoldSim skills (an
win an Apple iPod!), and several breakout sessions so users
with common interests can share ideas.
As always, we have scheduled several social events in the
evenings so you can enjoy the sights of one of the world's
most beautiful cities while networking with fellow GoldSim
users, including shopping and dinner on Granville Island,
and an evening dinner cruise.
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