Environmental Systems Applications

Human Health Risk

Probabilistic Human Health Risk Assessment

Human Health Risk

Human health risk assessment and analysis involves evaluating the effect of toxins, contaminants and other environmental hazards on human health. This requires evaluation of both how humans might be exposed to the hazards (i.e., the environmental pathways through which they are exposed), as well as the health impact once they are exposed.

The challenge when evaluating such systems is to find an approach that can incorporate all the knowledge available to engineers and scientists into a quantitative framework that can be used to predict the potential risks associated with a product or project. To be effective, the framework needs to be both flexible (so that it can accurately represent the systems) and transparent (so the models can be easily explained to decision-makers and stakeholders).

Biosphere Model

By combining the flexibility of a general-purpose and highly-graphical probabilistic simulation framework with a specialized module to support mass transport modeling, GoldSim allows you to create realistic models of complex, real-world multi-media environmental systems. Using Monte Carlo simulation, you can explicitly represent the uncertainty inherent is these systems in order to carry out both exposure analysis and risk analysis. GoldSim has the power and flexibility to build "total system" models of many kinds of environmental systems, ranging from individuals to populations. In addition, GoldSim supports two-dimensional (nested) Monte Carlo simulation, allowing you to explicitly separate uncertainty and variability in your analyses.



Technical Papers

  • A Quantitative Exposure Model Simulating Human Norovirus Transmission During Preparation of Deli Sandwiches

    International Journal of Food Microbiology, Vol. 196, Pgs. 126-136 – March 2015

    Stals A, Jacxsens L, Baert L, Uyttendaele M, Ghent University, Van Coillie E, Flemish Government, Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research.

    This journal article describes a study that simulates human noroviruses (HuNoV) transmission during the preparation of deli sandwiches in a sandwich bar. A quantitative exposure model was developed by combining the GoldSim and @Risk® software packages.


  • Prevention of Food Worker Transmission of Foodborne Pathogens

    Food Service Technology Volume 4 Issue 1, pgs. 31-49 – March 2004

    Barry Michaels and Cheryll Keller, The Michaels Group; Matthew Blevins, University of Florida; Greg Paoli and Todd Ruthman, Decisionalysis Risk Consultants; Ewen Todd, Michigan State University; Christopher Griffith, University of Wales Institute

    This paper describes the use of GoldSim and other risk analysis tools to model pathogen transmission in food handling. These models were used to explore the effectiveness of different food safety measures.

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  • GoldSim Modeling for the Options Analysis for the Smoky Site, Nevada Test Site

    Neptune and Company Project Report – July 2004

    John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    This webpage describes a Neptune and Company project to develop a GoldSim model to assist in evaluating different options for maintaining power lines running through a contaminated area of the Nevada Test Site.

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  • A Comparative Study Between GoldSim and AMBER Based Biosphere Assessment Models for an HLW

    Transactions of the Korean Nuclear Society Autmn Meeting, PyeongChang, Korea – October 2007

    Youn-Myoung Lee and Yongsoo Hwang, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

    To demonstrate the performance of a repository, GoldSim was used to examine the dose exposure rate to people due to long-term nuclide releases from a high-level waste repository and the results are compared to that of a similar model built in AMBER. The GoldSim model integrates the results of complex nuclide transport models through engineered barriers and geological fractured rock media surrounding an HLW repository site for a consecutive transport through a biosphere.


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