Technical Papers

Technical Papers, Abstracts, Conference Presentations and Articles Related to GoldSim

Business, Strategy and Policy Modeling

  • Development of an Execution Strategy Analysis Capability and Tool for Storage of Used Nuclear Fuel

    Publication for the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA-CN-226-34 – June 2015

    R. Stoll1, J. Greeves1, and J. Voss with Predicus LLC, USA; A. Keizur and A. Neir with Golder Associates Inc., USA; N. Saraeva and W. Nutt with Argonne National Laboratory, USA

    An Execution Strategy Analysis (ESA) capability and tool is being developed to evaluate alternative execution strategies for future deployment of a consolidated Interim Storage Facility (ISF) using a consent-based siting process per the Administration’s Strategy for the Management and Disposal of Used Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste. Application of an ESA approach not only leverages on but also goes beyond traditional project analysis tools. The ESA tool allows for on-going performance assessment of the evolving project execution plan that takes into account significant assumptions, risks, and uncertainties throughout the project lifecycle. The ESA process and tool are used to support the development of plans, budgets, and alternative execution/ implementation strategies for meeting the goals in the Strategy. The project is being applied in a dynamic probabilistic simulation model using GoldSim.

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  • Cost-Benefit Analysis of Policies for the Development of Electric Vehicles in Germany: Methods and Results

    Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Economics Working Paper, ISSN: 1827/3580 No. 02/WP/2013 – 2013

    Jerome Massiani with Universita Ca' Foscari di Venezia and Jorg Radeke of Berlin Economics GmbH

    Policies toward the diffusion of Electric Vehicles (EV) received a lot of attention in recent years in many developed countries. In this paper, we review different existing models and present a simulation tool for the assessment of EV policies in Germany. This model, which was built in GoldSim incorporates detailed representation of the various technological, behavioral and economical mechanisms that govern the possible diffusion of EV in Germany.

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  • Risk-Based Performance Assessment of Large Projects

    WM2010 Conference – March 2010

    John T. Greeves and Ralph Stoll, Predicus LLC, John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    Government and commercial nuclear projects have been criticized for the lack of a formal risk-based decision support tool for use in properly prioritizing large projects with significant uncertainties. Predicus LLC collaborated with the GoldSim Technology Group LLC to develop this state-of-the-art process to address this need for both government and commercial clients. Predicus LLC was supported by Neptune and Company to develop the specific example shown in this paper.

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  • Valuation Of A Turnover Management HRM Policy Bundle Using Monte Carlo Simulated Real Options

    Proceedings of the SimTecT 2008 Simulation Conference and Exhibition – May 2008

    David Urquhart and Debbie Richards, Macquarie University

    The field of Human Resource Management (HRM) addresses issues such as staff costs, performance and turnover – all of which have a basis in uncertainty. In this paper we employ GoldSim Monte Carlo simulated real options to determine the value of HRM policies.

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  • Proving a New Refinery Design Using Reliability Proving a New Refinery Design Using Reliability Throughput Modelling

    2011 International Applied Reliability Symposium, North America: San Diego, California – June 7 - 9, 2011

    Damien Willans

    The design, construction and operation of large-scale resource projects are now subject to extreme levels of competition and cost, with many projects running into billions of dollars. For this reason, resource companies, bankers and every participant in the design train are now compelled to understand every aspect of risk to be undertaken, usually well before the project becomes a reality. A key element of the design process is knowing if the plant can actually produce the required output – along with a clear understanding where the areas of potential risk might be. Rather than ignoring the reality of failure effects or, more commonly, de-rating the entire design by some “accepted” operating availability number and trying to justify it, companies are now turning to plant reliability modeling up-front to prove more efficient designs, even with the uncertainties of failures well before plant startup. The concept of calculating “throughput” provides an absolute plant (design) model output for given inputs, by directly linking plant flows and consequences to the equipment availability. This presentation describes a project recently undertaken, including the project background, modeling stages and processes, and the successful outcomes provided for one client who is currently undertaking a very large-scale resource investment.

    This presentation describes how GoldSim and the Reliability Module were used to simulate the throughput of an alumina refinery, accounting for failures and preventive maintenance schemes, to support facility design.

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  • The Environmental and Economic Benefits of Highway Access Management: A Multivariate Analysis Using System Dynamics

    Master's Thesis, University of Nevada – December 2008

    Dan Andersen, CH2M Hill

    As population growth increases, additional demands are placed on existing highway systems. Reconfiguring intersections and roadways to limit the number of access points to a particular roadway reduces congestion and has been shown to increase safety. This paper describes a GoldSim model that was created to try and quantify the environmental benefits (due to reduced emissions) and the economic impacts on businesses in areas where access management techniques were applied.

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  • Measurement of Supply Chain Integration Benefits

    Interdisciplinary Journal of Information, Knowledge, and Management Vol. 1 Pgs. 37–45 – 2006

    Peter Trkman and Aleš Groznik, University of Ljubljana

    This article describes how the effectiveness of supply chain modeling can be improved by including multiple tiers in the supply chain using a gasoline distribution example.

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  • Dynamic Retirement Withdrawal Planning

    Financial Services Review 15, Pgs. 117–131 – Summer 2006

    R. Gene Stout and John B. Mitchell, Central Michigan University

    This paper develops a dynamic model of retirement withdrawal planning that allows retirees and financial planners to improve the probability of retirement portfolio success while simultaneously increasing the average withdrawal rate. The key elements of the model are periodic adjustments of retirement withdrawal rates based on both portfolio performance and remaining life expectancy, and Monte Carlo simulation of both investment returns and mortality. The inclusion of mortality in fixed planning horizon models reduces the probability of retirement-portfolio ruin by almost 50%. When compared to fixed withdrawal rate models, dynamic withdrawal management incorporating mortality reduces the probability of ruin by another 35–40% while increasing average lifetime withdrawal rates by nearly 50%.

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  • Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) For Environmental Remediation and Waste Management

    WM2012 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA – February 26 – March 1, 2012

    David L. Pentz, Ralph H. Stoll, John T. Greeves, R. Ian Miller, and W. Mark Nutt

    The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy’s Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation’s nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM’s projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks. The underlying concept for PRISM is that DOE-EM “owns” a portfolio of environmental legacy obligations (ELOs), and that its mission is to transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, in the most effective way possible. There are many types of ELOs - - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D&D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. For a given suite of planned activities, PRISM simulates the outcomes as they play out over time, allowing for all key identified uncertainties and risk factors.

    PRISM is based on the GoldSim software that is widely used for risk and performance assessment calculations. PRISM can be run in a deterministic mode, which quickly provides an estimate of the most likely results of a given plan. Alternatively, the model can be run probabilistically in a Monte Carlo mode, exploring the risks and uncertainties in the system and producing probability distributions for the different performance measures.

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Mining

  • Black Butte Project Water Balance

    Appendix L of the Black Butte Copper Project Mine Operating Permit Application – December 2015

    Mediha Hodzic, Knight Piesold Consulting

    The Black Butte Copper Project is a proposed underground copper mine located approximately 32 km north of White Sulphur Springs, Montana. An update to the life-of-mine site wide water balance model has been completed by Knight Piésold (KP) to incorporate the transfer of surface water from the Process Water Pond and the Cemented Tailings Facility to the Water Treatment Plant, with subsequent treatment and release to the environment. Surface water includes direct precipitation on mine facilities, as well as runoff contributing to mine facilities. This letter details the model objectives, parameters, assumptions, and results.

    The model was developed using the GoldSim© modeling platform. Deterministic and stochastic approaches were used, and 15 years were modeled including two pre-production years and 13 years of operations.

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  • Yeelirrie Water Balance Study

    Report prepared for Cameco Australia Pty Ltd – June 2015

    Nazuha Rosli, URS

    This report presents the results of the Water Balance modelling for the proposed Yeelirrie Project, which supports the Public Environmental Approval (PER) submission process, aimed to validate the performance of the Project water management strategy. The water balance developed for this project was first developed using GoldSiom by URS in 2011 and has since been updated to reflect changes to the proposed mine plan.

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  • Mine Water Balance Modelling for Goedehoop Colliery

    Report No.: JW191/14/D952- Rev 0 for Anglo-American Thermal Coal – October 2014

    Simphiwe Ngcobo, Jones and Wagener Engineering and Environmental Consultants

    Anglo-American Thermal Coal invited Jones & Wagener Engineering and Environmental Consultants to develop a Life of Mine water balance for the Goedehoop South Colliery in Vandyksdrift in the Mpumalanga Province. The water balance was based on relevant hydrological data and mine water management information received from the client. The data and information were compared against known estimates and logical assumptions made. The water balance modelling was performed in the GoldSim modelling environment and the results were analysed.

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  • A Probabilistic Water Balance

    Thesis Paper, UMI Dissertations Publishing – 2014

    Wade, Lisa, Montana Tech of the University of Montana

    This is a Thesis, describing the research and development of a probabilistic water budget model for a mining and milling operation using GoldSim. The model incorporates climate data, well water supply, dewatering and water entrainment within a tailings storage facility. The issues revealed by the GoldSim model results were of critical importance and their identification will result in financial savings, as well as the avoidance of any emergency or crisis situations with respect to environmental management of water and tailings at the project.

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  • Snap Lake Mine Site Water Quality

    Mine Water Quality Report Update – December 2013

    De Beers Canada Inc.

    A mass and flow balance model built in GoldSim was used to integrate the flow and mass loading from the components of a Mine site to develop overall estimates of water quality and mass load for the Mine site water quality. The Contaminant Transport module is used to track mass movement and develop estimates of mass load and concentrations at various points in the system.

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  • Red Hill Mining Lease - EIS Water Balance Modeling

    EIS Water Balance Modeling Report, Final - Revision 0 – November 2013

    S. Buckley, Sinclair Knight Merz

    Sinclair Knight Merz (SKM) was commissioned by BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance to prepare water balance modelling to support the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) in association with the proposed Red Hill Mining Lease. The study was undertaken using a water balance model developed for the Goonyella Riverside and Broadmeadow mine complex operation using GoldSim. This study builds on the operational model to provide input to the EIS.

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  • Minyango Project Environmental Impact Statement

    Water Balance Report for the Minyango Project – April 2013

    WRM Water and Environment Pty Ltd.

    WRM Water and Environment Pty Ltd was commissioned to complete a water balance assessment as part of an EIS for the Minyango Project. The water balance, which includes water supplies, demands, and storages over the life of the mine, was developed using GoldSim. The model dynamically simulates the mine operations and accounts for site water volumes and quality on a daily time step.

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  • Water Balance Model for the Mt. Todd Mine Production and Closure

    Appendix 1, Surface Water Assessment prepared by GHD Australia Pty Ltd. for Vista Gold Australia Pty Ltd – May 2013

    Tetra Tech

    A GoldSim model was developed to simulate the performance of a water containment system during pre-production, production, closure and post-closure of the mine's life cycle. The water balance includes climate and runoff, site seepage and other losses, tailings reclaim water, water demands, water balance logic, water supplies and discharge to the environment. This was all simulated under varying conditions and rules as the mine facilities change during its life cycle.

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  • Water Management Plan for Mangatangi Mine

    Appendix B Water Management Plan (WMP) Golder Associates (NZ) Limited – October 2012

    Golder Associates

    A GoldSim water balance and water quality model was developed by Golder Associates for the Mangatangi Mine in behalf of Glencoal Energy Limited. Stream flow depletions and potential boron concentrations were calculated on the basis of the water flow and contaminant mass balances performed in the model.

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  • Mine Water Management from Pre-feasibility to Closure

    Mine Water Management and Treatment, Kuopio, Finland – September 2013

    Seth Mueller, Boliden Mineral AB

    A mine water management plan was developed to assist with regulatory permitting and planning for a mine in Finland. GoldSim was used to simulate the water management from pre-feasibility through closure. The model accounts for pre and post mining conditions, various water demands and recycling, extreme climate events, and impacts on water quality. The model takes advantage of GoldSim's powerful dynamic and probabilistic functionality to optimize mine operations under uncertain conditions.

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  • Use of an Integrated Source-to-Receptor Model to Faciliate Rapid Assessment of Water Quality Impacts During Mine Planning

    Reliable Mine Water Technology, IMWA; Golden CO USA – 2013

    Tina Pint, Peter Hinck, Barr Engineering Company

    An integrated source-to-receptor model for assessing potential project-wide water impacts can save time and money by facilitating rapid evaluation of multiple design options. GoldSim was used to develop an integrated source-to-receptor model for a mine site in northern Minnesota and used to evaluate various mine closure options during the mine planning process.

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  • Mine Water Quality Predictions Model

    Project Report, Casino Mining Corporation – December 2013

    Source Environmental Associates, Inc.

    A site-wide water quality model was developed for a proposed Mining Project. The model simulates water quality in the mine discharge and receiving environment. The water quality model is also used as a planning tool to help select water quality mitigations. The water quality model was built within the GoldSim modelling platform, and was run for a simulation timeline of 200 years and includes 29 water quality parameters.

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  • Mine Water Quality Model

    Quality Assurance Technical Memorandum, Environmental Resources Management – February 2013

    Barr Engineering Company

    A technical memorandum (link below) summarizes a series of Quality Assurance (QA) evaluations that were performed on two water quality models used to estimate environmental impacts associated with a proposed mining project. The two models, one for a mine site and one for a plant site, were programmed using GoldSim. The models were developed by Barr Engineering Company (Barr) to estimate potential effects from the proposed mine on the quality and quantity of water resources.

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  • Waste Discharge Charge System: The Practical Implication from a Gold Mining Perspecitve

    Mini-dissertation, North-West University – October 2012

    K.C. de Waard, J.H. Stander, Potchefstroom Campus of North-West University

    A case study was used to determine what information and instruments will be required at a gold mine to implement the Waste Discharge Charge System (WDCS). The determining of the point and diffuse discharges require multidisciplinary studies with the integration of different spheres of the environment. To assist with this a GoldSim model was developed. The main function of the model was to determine the seepage rates per day from pollution sources using available information. The seepage rates and water quality data were used to determine waste loads discharged to the environment.

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  • Geochemical Pit Lake Predictive Model

    Report for Rosemont Copper Project, Revision 1 – November 2010

    Tetra Tech

    A dynamic systems computer model (DSM) was developed in GoldSim to simulate the hydrologic water balance and the mixing of the chemical loads from the various hydrologic processes (e.g., groundwater inflow, pit wall runoff, precipitation) for the anticipated Rosemont pit lake. Outputs from the DSM predictive simulations were used as inputs to a final simulation model step using PHREEQC.

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  • Water Balance for a TSF Using GoldSim

    Tailings and Heap Leach Pad Workshop – April 2010

    SRK Consulting

    This presentation summarizes the benefits of using GoldSim for a waste and tailings water balance for the Mount Carlton mine. Some benefits of using GoldSim over a Spreadsheet are noted: GoldSim better facilitates handling of complex climatic data, saves significant model runtime to view multiple scenarios, better estimates water volumes in dry seasons, easier to run optimizations.

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  • Linking Fundamental Geochemistry and Empirical Observations for Water Quality Predictions Using GoldSim

    Mine Water and Innovative Thinking, IMWA, Wolkersdorfer. Ch. and Freund, A., p 313-316, Sydney, Nova Scotia, Canada – 2010

    Brent Usher, Roald Strand, Chris Strachotta and Jim Jackson

    Prediction of water quality across different components of a mine site is often a challenging proposition, due to both the technical challenges of water quality modelling and the variability of available data. A methodology of integrating site-specific mine waste characterization results and minewater balances through the use of fundamental considerations and empirically-derived constraints to predict water quality from mine waste sources has been developed. The adoption of GoldSim as visual interface software with capacity for matrix calculations has facilitated the development of linked water quality sub-models for different mine facilities. Fundamental and observed geochemical responses from on-site monitoring, field kinetic tests and laboratory data have been incorporated with Phreeqc and geochemists Workbench modelling to identify the most important geochemical processes across the mine site. Based on the static geochemical data to populate the models, the determined geochemical generation rates, the site specific geochemical properties and the mine-site water balance, the GoldSim platform has been used to realise the conceptual understanding of each aspect and construct a framework to provide mine scale water quality projections. In this way, models have been built to assist in a range of situations from a large operating poly-metallic open cut mine to assess mine waste and mine water management alternatives to determination of likely water quality at a proposed large mine in a tropical environment.

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  • Modelling of Contaminant Release from a Uranium Mine Tailings Site

    Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management (ICEM) – September 2007

    R. Kahnt and T. Metschies

    Uranium mining and milling continuing from the early 1960s until 1990 close to the town of Seelingstädt in Eastern Germany resulted in 4 large tailings impoundments. Leakage from these tailings impoundments enters the underlying aquifers and is discharged into surface water streams. High concentration of salts, uranium and several heavy metals are released from the tailings. A compartment model representing the tailings impoundments and the surrounding aquifers for the calculation of contaminant release and transport was set up using GoldSim. This compartment model describes the time dependent hydraulic conditions within the tailings and the surrounding aquifers taking into account hydraulic and geotechnical processes influencing the hydraulic properties of the tailings material. A simple geochemical approach taking into account sorption processes as well as retardation by applying a kd-approach was also implemented. The model was used to predict the effect of various remediation scenarios in a fast and traceable way.

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  • Mine Water Management – Dynamic, Probabilistic Modelling Approach

    10th International Mine Water Association Congress – June 2008

    Przemek Nalecki and Mike Gowan, Golder Associates

    This paper presents a holistic approach to mine water management. The proposed approach provides a framework and methodology for integrating different components of mine water infrastructure by explicitly representing the relationships, feedback mechanisms and uncertainties about the conditions and processes involved, using a dynamic, probabilistic simulation method.

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  • Development and Operation of a Water Balance at Rio Paracatu Mineracao, Brazil

    Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Acid Rock Drainage (ICARD), St. Louis, MO – March 2006

    Tobias Puhlmann, Juliana Esper, and Rodrigo Dutra Amaral, Kinross Gold Corporation; Charles Voss, Golder Associates

    This paper describes a site wide water model of the Rio Paracatu Mineração that was developed to a) evaluate ways to optimize the operation of the existing water management system and b) evaluate alternative water infrastructure and water supply options that would meet the requirements of future mine expansions.

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  • Peruvian Mine Operation Using Dynamic System Modeling

    Southwest Hydrology – July/August 2006

    Charlie Voss, Golder Associates; Henri Letient, Compania Minera Antamina S.A.

    This article describes the GoldSim model of the Antamina mine that was created to allow different water management strategies to be evaluated to ensure that they would meet regulatory constraints

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  • Applying Numerical Hydrochemical Models as Decision Support Tools for Mine Closure Planning

    Presentation at Tailings and Mine Waste '08, Vail, CO – October 2008

    Ted Eary, Jody Eshleman, Ryan Jakubowski and Andrew Watson, MWH

    This presentation describes the use of decision-support models for evaluating closure alternatives for pit lakes.

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  • Rehabilitation of Meirama Pit Lake

    Proceedings of the 9th International Mine Water Conference, Oviedo, Spain – February 2012

    Juan Luis Delgado, Lignitos de Meirama, SA

    This paper describes a model built to evaluate closure options for a coal mine, taking into account possible water quality issues.

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  • Simulating the Effectiveness of Remedial Measures at a Coal Mine (New Zealand)

    Proceedings of the 2006 Water in Mining Conference – November 2006

    Jan Vermaak and Paul Lindsay, Golder Associates

    This paper describes a GoldSim model that was developed to simulate the effectiveness and costs of a number of conceptual remedial measures aimed at reducing acidity and metal concentrations in the Ngakawau River and its tributaries near the Stockton Coal Mine, situated on the West Coast of New Zealand.

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  • Probabilistic Modeling for Tailings Remediation and Restoration

    Mine Water – Managing the Challenges, IMWA; Aachen, Germany – 2011

    Gareth Digges La Touche, Helen Culshaw, Richard Lansley, Golder Associates (UK) Ltd

    Tailings Management Facilities represent a hazard to the down gradient surface water and groundwater environment. The assessment of the risks such facilities pose to the water environment is an important issue for mine closure, particularly when the potential for an impact on the water environment has been identified. This paper will describe the application of probabilistic simulation in quantitative analytical models to assess the risks where confidence in modelled outcomes may otherwise be inhibited due to limited environmental data. The application of probabilistic modelling will be illustrated through case studies illustrating the use of probabilistic risk assessment to appraise differing closure and remediation strategies for a tailings management facility and the use of such tools to quantify the level of uncertainty in the assessment of risk.

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Water Resources

  • Vulnerability Assessment to Support Integrated Water Resources Management of Metropolitan Water Supply Systems

    Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000738. © 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers – November 2016

    Erfan Goharian, Steven J. Burian, Jason Lillywhite, and Ryan Hile

    The combined actions of natural and human factors change the timing and availability of water resources and, correspondingly, water demand in metropolitan areas. This leads to an imbalance between supply and demand resulting in increased vulnerability of water supply systems. Accordingly, methods for systematic analysis and multifactor assessment are needed to estimate the vulnerability of individual components in an integrated water supply system. This paper introduces a new approach to comprehensively assess vulnerability by integrating water resource system characteristics with factors representing exposure, sensitivity, severity, potential severity, social vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed approach are checked using an investigation of the water supply system of Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah. First, an integrated water resource model was developed using GoldSim to allocate water from different sources in SLC among designated demand points. The model contains individual simulation modules with representative interconnections among the natural hydroclimate system, built water infrastructure, and institutional decision making. The results of the analysis illustrate that basing vulnerability on a sole factor may lead to insufficient understanding and, hence, inefficient management of the system. The new vulnerability index and assessment approach was able to identify the most vulnerable water sources in the SLC integrated water supply system. In conclusion, use of a more comprehensive approach to simulate the system behavior and estimate vulnerability provides more guidance for decision makers to detect vulnerable components of the system and ameliorate decision making.

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  • A probabilistic framework for comparison of dam breach parameters and outflow hydrograph generated by different empirical prediction methods

    Journal of Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 86, Pgs. 248–263, 1364-8152/© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. – December 2016

    Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Alfred J. Kalyanapu, Brantley A. Thames, Jason Lillywhite

    This study presents a probabilistic framework to simulate a dam breach and evaluates the impact of using four empirical dam breach prediction methods on breach parameters (i.e., geometry and timing) and outflow hydrograph attributes (i.e., time to peak, hydrograph duration and peak). Mean values and percentiles of breach parameters and outflow hydrograph attributes are compared for hypothetical overtopping failure of Burnett Dam in the state of North Carolina, USA. Furthermore, utilizing the probabilistic framework of GoldSim, the least and most uncertain methods alongside those giving the most critical value are identified for these parameters. The multivariate analysis also indicates that lone use of breach parameters is not necessarily sufficient to characterize outflow hydrograph attributes. However, timing characteristic of the breach is generally a more important driver than its geometric features.

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  • Upper Lefroy Community Dam Scenario and Optimisation Modelling

    Verterra Ecological Engineering Projects Showcase – 2015

    Verterra Ecological Engineering

    The Department of Water Western Australia required a means to investigate, assess and recommend the most viable option for a local water supply scheme incorporating community dams and associated infrastructure. To meet the their requirements, Verterra constructed a Goldsim model to illustrate expected grower behaviour and likely cost of water from a range of 1-2 GL community dam options. GoldSim is dynamic probabilistic software model which can be used to develop a water management framework and methodology for integrating different components of water infrastructure while accounting for natural variability in rainfall and streamflow. This probabilistic modelling approach enabled a risk analysis to be incorporated into the evaluation of potential environmental and economic impacts. The scenario testing and optimisation model developed by Verterra allowed the client to undertake preliminary exploration of the effect of a range of different configurations and usage behaviours of the proposed community dam system, and to explore the reliability and cost of water.

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  • Incorporating Potential Severity into Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems under Climate Change Conditions

    Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2015DOI: 10.1061/ (ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000579. © 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers. – November 2015

    Erfan Goharian, S.M.ASCE; Steven J. Burian, M.ASCE; Courtenay Strong with Univ. of Utah; Tim Bardsley with Western Water Assessment

    In response to climate change, vulnerability assessment of water resources systems is typically performed based on quantifying the severity of the failure. This paper introduces an approach to assess vulnerability that incorporates a set of new factors. The method is demonstrated with a case study of a reservoir system in Salt Lake City using an integrated modeling framework composed of a hydrologic model and a systems model driven by temperature and precipitation data for a 30-year historical (1981–2010) period. The climate of the selected future (2036–2065) simulation periods were represented by five combinations of warm or hot, wet or dry, and central tendency projections derived from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The results of the analysis illustrate that basing vulnerability on severity alone may lead to an incorrect quantification of the system vulnerability. In this study, a typical vulnerability metric (severity) incorrectly provides low magnitudes under the projected future warm-wet climate condition. The proposed new metric correctly indicates the vulnerability to be high because it accounts for additional factors. To further explore the new factors, a sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed to show the impact and importance of the factors on the vulnerability of the system under different climate conditions. The new metric provides a comprehensive representation of system vulnerability under climate change scenarios, which can help decision makers and stakeholders evaluate system operation and infrastructure changes for climate adaptation.

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  • Simulation Model of Pumped Hydroelectric Power Plant

    Acta Electrotechnica et Informatica, Vol. 15, No. 2, 2015, 57–61, DOI: 10.15546/aeei-2015-0019 – 2015

    Miroslav Mikita, Michael Kolcun; Department of Electric Power Engineering, Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Informatics, Technical University of Kosice, Letna 9, 042 00 Kosice, Slovak Republic

    The Pumped hydroelectric power plants are very suitable way to avoid the unpredictable imbalance in power generation, but its construction is very expensive and reliability is very long-term. Every single pumped hydroelectric power plant is like rechargeable battery which can generate electricity when there is a deficiency in power generation and also can consume when there is conversely reserve on power generation. That's the main reason why is important to build such sources of energy. When you create new project of every power plant that prediction of it's performance is highly important and simulation software is useful in this cases. For good prediction is also important true data in simulation and knowledge about locality of this project, because every project varies from other similar projects. For obtaining optimal conditions of using pumped hydroelectric power plant is needed to find best algorithm of generating or consuming the electricity. GoldSim was used to develop this pumped storage model.

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  • Central Arizona Project Service Area Model (CAP:SAM)

    Draft Technical Documentation for the Municipal Demand Section of CAP:SAM – December 2014

    Jessica Fox, Central Arizona Project

    To serve the planning needs of the Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District (CAGRD), the Central Arizona Project Service Area Model (CAP:SAM) was developed in GoldSim to simulate 80 separate water utilities that serve 5.3 million people, spread over 23,800 square miles. The model fulfills each utility's projected demand based on their unique portfolio of up to 15 different supply types, and the model allows dynamic adjustment of spatially‐explicit housing unit projections. CAP:SAM also supports risk and reliability analysis utilizing GoldSim's extensive stochastic functionality, and it is ideally situated for systematic approaches such as Robust Decision Making.

    Reference

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  • Evaluating the Impacts of Environmental Flow Alternatives on Reservoir and Recreational Operations Using System Dynamics Modeling

    Journal of The American Water Resources Association, Volume 51, Issue 1, pages 33-46 – February 2015

    Ryan R. Morrison Postdoctoral Fellow and Mark C. Stone Assistant Professor

    Providing environmental flows is increasingly a management obligation in many water resource systems. Evaluating the impacts of environmental flow alternatives on other water uses in a basin can be a challenge, especially when collaborating with stakeholders. GoldSim was used to construct and perform system dynamics simulation to assess the impacts of four environmental flow alternatives in the Rio Chama, New Mexico. Compared to other system dynamics modeling software, GoldSim provided the unique capability of allowing model variables to be sampled using Monte Carlo sampling. The model was developed to examine impacts of each alternative on reservoir storage and releases, hydropower production and revenue, and whitewater boating access. Results from the model indicate that the proposed flow recommendations on the Rio Chama will generally decrease annual reservoir storage, increase median flows, and have minimal impacts on hydropower production and whitewater rafting on the system. The Rio Chama case study is a promising example of how SD modeling can be used in the early stages of environmental flow studies and why it is compatible with collaborative modeling.

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  • Poverty Bay Groundwater Management: MAR Feasibility Assessment and GoldSim Groundwater Management Tool (Stage 1B)

    Report Submitted to Gisborne District Council, New Zealand – August 2014

    Golder Associates

    The Gisborne District Council (GDC) has identified long term water availability in the Poverty Bay area as being a potentially limiting factor in future regional development. A substantial proportion of the water used for irrigation across the Poverty Bay Flats is derived from groundwater. Reviews of groundwater levels in the Poverty Bay Flats area have identified declining groundwater pressure trends as an environmental and water supply issue. These trends are linked to increasing groundwater abstraction for irrigation purposes.

    Golder GW Management Plan

    The GDC is investigating water management options to stabilize groundwater pressure trends and increase water supply reliability in the Poverty Bay area. One option under investigation is the use of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR), to replenish and sustain groundwater yields from aquifers beneath the Poverty Bay Flats. Golder Associates (NZ) Limited (Golder) was commissioned by GDC to undertake a feasibility assessment for a MAR program.

    The MAR feasibility assessment carried out by Golder included an evaluation of the challenges and needs for Poverty Bay water management, including source water options, direct injection and surface infiltration options and water quality management requirements.

    A Groundwater Management Tool (GMT), incorporating a calibrated water balance model for the Makauri Aquifer, has been developed to a demonstration stage for the GDC using the Goldsim software package. The GMT is intended to support the GDC in assessing options for the management and replenishment of the Poverty Bay Flats groundwater supplies, within the framework of water management planning for the region.

    Golder's feasibility analysis shows a groundwater replenishment scheme has the potential to:

    • Stabilise current downward trends in groundwater levels within the Makauri Aquifer
    • Restore groundwater pressures within the aquifer
    • Enable the establishment of a sustainable yield for the aquifer that exceeds current usage

    In summary, Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) has the potential to replenish and support sustainable groundwater yields from aquifers beneath the Poverty Bay Flats. The results from a risk-benefits analysis indicate that the further Stage II analysis, design and costing for a pilot injection MAR site is recommended.

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  • Managing Complex Water Resource Systems for Ecological Integrity: Evaluating Tradeoffs and Uncertainty

    Master's Thesis, University of Mexico – May 2014

    Ryan Richard Morrison

    This is a masters thesis describing the methodology used to develop a probabilistic, dynamic simulation model that evaluates the impacts of environmental flow alternatives. These alternatives implement various water use schemes in the Rio Chama basin in New Mexico. This work evaluates the influence of various flows on cottonwood recruitment, reservoir storage, hydropower production, and whitewater boating. This project used multiple tools with GoldSim's role focusing on the probabilistic and dynamic simulation of the hydroclimatic uncertainties related to management operations in the water system.

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  • Using GoldSim for Joint Probability Assessment of Closure Times on Linear Infrastructure

    Visions to Realities - Stormwater Queensland Conference proceedings, Noosa – June 2014

    E. Symons, C. Gimber, Kellogg Brown and Root Pty Ltd

    Flooding of major regional roads and rail corridors severely disrupts transport operations including the export of mined minerals from central and north Queensland which contribute heavily to the Australian economy. It is important for proponents developing new infrastructure and operators of existing infrastructure to understand annual closure times resulting from flooding. Long linkages of road or rail that cross a number of catchment basins and a large number of drainage lines can be difficult to assess due to spatial variation, moving storms and concurrent storms. The objective of this paper is to create a simple methodology, using joint probability, to quantitatively assess the closure time along linear infrastructure. For this paper, GoldSim was used to represent the road or rail system.

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  • Probabilistic Simulation of Large Dam Operations for Water Supply and Flood Control

    Australian National Committee on Large Dams (ANCOLD) Conference – 2014

    A flood operations model was built using GoldSim to facilitate 3 different studies to help better understand and fine tune operations of a large dam used for water supply and flood control. GoldSim was used to probabilistically simulate thousands of flood scenarios, which made it possible to compare different operating schemes under many possible conditions. The approach was found to be valuable to understand the capacity of the dams to mitigate floods while protecting water supplies. The studies identified shortcomings in the conventional design event approach to flood estimation. A broader range of stochastic floods provided an advantage to better assess flood mitigation performance and extreme floods, which is important for dam safety. Papers describing these studies were presented at the Australian National Committee on Large Dams (ANCOLD) conference in 2014

    References

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  • Probabilistic Analysis to Evaluate the Effects of Dam Breach Methodologies on Downstream Flood Hazard

    World Environment and Water Resources Congress Conference Proceeding Paper – June 2014

    Alfred Kalyanapu, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Brantley A. Thames, Tennessee Tech University and Jason Lillywhite with GoldSim Technology Group

    The objective of this study is to perform a probabilistic dam breach analysis and evaluate impacts of using four different dam breach methods on downstream flood hazards in Swannanoa River watershed.

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  • Integrated Urban Water Resources Modeling in a Semi-Arid Mountainous Region Using a Cyber-Infrastructure Framework

    11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics Conference Proceeding Paper – August 2014

    Erfan Goharian, Steve J. Burian, University of Utah

    A GoldSim model was used to facilitate an integrated water resources management approach to deal with challenges related to increasing water demand, uncertain future climate variability, and conflicts related to water rights and access to water supplies. The GoldSim model was integrated with a web-based user interface to better facilitate stakeholder engagement and k-12 outreach and education activities.

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  • Modeling Integration Package - Linking SWMM to GoldSim

    Research Project Report, University of Utah – 2014

    Chris York, Seteven Switzer, Travis Christensen, Jeff Huber, and Stephen Daras, University of Utah

    A need to link SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) and GoldSim together was identified in the Urban Water Research Group at the University of Utah. This is an effort to link model results together to answer a greater number of research questions and enhance modelling results by using multiple software programs. The most efficient way to link SWMM and GoldSim was determined to be through a central database. Once model results were stored in the database, the values could then be shared with both programs. Additional analysis was performed using R and model results were shared via HydroServer.

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  • Colorado River Planning and Modeling

    Online Presentation, ASU Decision Center – 2013

    Mohammed Mahmoud, Central Arizona Project

    This presentation is a summary of Central Arizona Project's "On-River Model", which was built in GoldSim to analyze system capacity in response to seasonal variations in demand, canal and reservoir operation rules, and optimization of power consumption.

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  • Stormwater Harvesting Model

    Improving an Urban Creek by Taking Away the Water – July 2014

    A Tipene, Parsons Brinckerhoff

    A sustainable stormwater harvesting project was evaluated to determine the ecological and water quality impact in a watershed located in New South Wales, Australia. GoldSim was used to simulate the operation of the proposed stormwater harvesting scheme. The model includes flow diversion structures, a harvest pool and complex behavior logic for the pumps and associated storage facilities.

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  • The Impact of Climate Change on a Mine Water Source

    International Mine Water Association Annual Conference – October 2012

    Conor O'Hara, Jaco Grobler, Greg Hookey, Jan Vermaak, Golder Associates Pty Ltd

    GoldSim was used to simulate watershed runoff using stochastic rainfall (Markov chain) data and the application of climate change projections. The modeling approach resulted in the estimation of 30-yr flow series that reflected prevailing rainfall trends with the ability to consider the predicted climate change. Using GoldSim's optimization tool, random watershed parameters were generated to produce alternative simulated flow series for the planning horizon.

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  • Development of a Computer Model to Optimize Recharge Performance

    Greg Woodside and Marsha Westropp, Orange County Water District

    In 2009, the Orange County Water District completed development of a Recharge Facilities Model (RFM). This model was developed with the assistance of CH2M HILL and is based on GoldSim to simulate groundwater recharge operations for the District's 1,100 acres of surface recharge facilities. The model was developed as water resources planning tool to estimate the total water percolated through the spreading basins and to evaluate system performance under different future inflow scenarios and different system configurations.The excellent fit between the historical recharge and modeled recharge showed that the model was well calibrated and could be used to predict recharge under a variety of conditions. Results from this model were used in a 2015 update to the District's Draft Groundwater Management Plan.

    References

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  • Decision Support System for Optimizing Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions

    J. Water Resour. Plng. and Mgmt. Volume 137, Issue 1, pp. 72-82 – January/February 2011

    Eset T. Alemu, Richard N. Palmer, Austin Polebitski, and Bruce Meaker

    This paper discusses a GoldSim reservoir operations model that was developed for a public utility district in Washington, USA. This link takes you to the abstract and lets you download the full paper.

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  • Impacts of Future Climate Conditions and Forecasted Population Growth on Water Supply Systems in the Puget Sound Region

    Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management – July 2011

    Lee Traynham, Richard Palmer, and Austin Polebitski

    Regional water supply models were developed using GoldSim to predict the impacts to water supply systems in Seattle, Everett, Tacoma, and Bellevue, Washington. This research explored the ability of regional water supply systems to meet future water demands given rising populations and climate change. Three sets of climate impacted streamflows were created for future years 2025, 2050, and 2075 using three General Circulation Models and two emission scenarios. The performance of each water supply system was characterized by firm yield and reliability metrics.

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  • Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District Water Balance Model: A Foundational Component of a District Resource Management Plan

    USCID Water Management Conference Proceeding – March 2010

    Thaddeus Bettner, Grant Davids, Davids Engineering

    Glenn-Colusa Irrigation District (GCID) developed a Resources Plan (Plan) to establish improved policies and decision making processes to better and more actively manage its available water supplies. GoldSim was used to simulate the water balance, which will help improve the District's data management and reporting systems and to better analyze historic and possible future water supplies and demands.

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  • Climate Change Impacts on Water Management in the Puget Sound Region, Washington State, USA

    Earth and Environmental Science, Climate Change – September 2010

    Julie A. Vano, Nathalie Voisin, Lan Cuo, Alan F. Hamlet, Marketa McGuire Elsner, Richard N. Palmer, Austin Polebitski and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

    GoldSim was used to build 3 water resources models to see how different systems in the Puget Sound area might perform under various climate change scenarios over the next century. Changes in future water demands were also considered. Streamflow was simulated using the distributed hydrology-soil-vegetation model, driven by downscaled ensembles of climate simulations archived from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. These streamflows were used as input to the water resources models. The models predicted that the water systems should remain reliable under changing climate conditions but if demand increases then the reliability significantly declines.

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  • Integrated Management of a Finite Water Supply in the Desert

    ASCE Conference Proceeding Paper – May 2009

    Daniel Wendell, Steve Shultz, and Aditya Tyagi, CH2MHILL

    A GoldSim model was used to help determine how to maximize the "lifespan" of local water supplies, minimize costs, and avoid adverse impacts at an army base near the Mojave Desert, California. To meet the needs of this project, the entire water cycle of the area was evaluated in an integrated and quantitative manner, including: modeling local groundwater supplies; evaluating potential development of remote water supplies and associated costs; conducting an end-use water demand and conservation analysis; developing a recycled water irrigation program; implementing an indirect wastewater reuse (i.e., recharge) program; developing an operations program designed to mitigate adverse impacts such as land subsidence; and assessing cost, power consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions from the various alternatives.

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  • Performance of Water Supply Operations Measured by Reliability and Marginal Cost

    Master's Thesis, University of Utah – May 2008

    Jason Lillywhite, University of Utah

    This study uses GoldSim to apply a concept of combining marginal cost and reliability in an operational water supply model. Reliability and efficiency can significantly impact performance of producing and delivering water. Rapid population growth, climate change, extended droughts, and increasing public scrutiny are all reasons why it is becoming more important for water supply planners to develop strategies that provide reliable and cost-efficient solutions to the public. This model uses an approach of assessing reliability of water supply and marginal costs by incorporating both supply and demand-side management options. Risk-based reliability of the system is estimated as a function of shortages in flow rate and system storage volumes. The new approach is applied to a water supply planning model for the Washington County Water Conservancy District, a regional water wholesaler located in St. George, Utah. The results of this study show that increased operational efficiencies can be found while maintaining higher reliability in the system. The results also show that this approach can provide better insight into timing of large future supply acquisitions.

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  • Water Supply Modeling for the North Bowen Coal Basin (Queensland)

    Proceedings of the 2006 Water in Mining Conference – 2006

    Shaun Davidge, Aditya Jha and Russell Merz, Golder Associates

    This paper describes a project which used GoldSim to evaluate infrastructure improvements for a water supply in Queensland, Australia.

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  • Using Dynamic System Models for Water Use Accountability and Planning in Georgia

    Proceedings of the 2005 Georgia Water Resources Conference, Athens, GA – April 2005

    Joe Volpe and Charlie Voss, Golder Associates

    This paper describes how dynamic simulation models can be used to make water use planning more quantitative.

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Risk Assessment

  • Comparative Analysis of Static and Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    Journal Article published in the Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (RAMS) – 2015 Annual

    Mattenberger, C. NASA Ames Res. Center, Moffett Field, CA, USA; Mathias, D.L.; Go, S.

    This study compares and contrasts three different approaches for the probabilistic safety assessment of crewed spacecraft: traditional static fault tree; fault tree hybrid, and dynamic Monte Carlo simulation (using GoldSim).

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  • Engineering Risk Assessment of a Dynamic Space Propulsion System Benchmark Problem

    Reliability Engineering & System Safety – July 2015

    Donovan L. Mathias, Christopher J. Mattenberger, and Susie Go (NASA Ames Research Center)

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center develops dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the 2014 Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management conference Space Propulsion System Benchmark Problem, which investigates dynamic system risk for a deep space ion propulsion system over three missions with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic missions are simulated using commercial software to generate integrated loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results via Monte Carlo sampling. The simulation model successfully captured all dynamics aspects of the benchmark missions, and convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. In addition, to evaluate the relative importance of dynamic modeling, the Ames Reliability Tool (ART) was used to build a series of quasi-dynamic, deterministic models that incorporated varying levels of the problem's dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation results for the simpler mission case, while auxiliary dynamic models were required to adequately capture risk-driver rankings for the more dynamic cases. This study highlights how state-of-the-art techniques can adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

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  • Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment Applied to Launch Vehicle Conceptual Design

    Reliability and Maintainability Symposium – January 2008

    Donovan L. Mathias, Susie Go, Ken Gee, and Scott Lawrence, NASA Ames Research Center

    This paper describes the application of simulation-based risk assessment to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission.

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  • Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

    Proceedings, Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM 12, Honolulu, HI – June 2014

    Donovan L. Mathias, Susie Go, NASA Ames Research Center and Christopher J. Mattenberger, Science and Technology Corp.

    Quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions were developed by the Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center, which uses GoldSim's discrete and continuous-time reliability elements. The model applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

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  • An Integrated Reliability and Physics-based Risk Modeling Approach for Assessing Human Spaceflight Systems

    Proceedings, Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management PSAM 12, Honolulu, HI – June 2014

    Susie Go, Donovan L. Mathias, Scott Lawrence, Ken Gee, NASA Ames Research Center and Christopher J. Mattenberger, Science and Technology Corp

    This paper presents an integrated reliability and physics-based risk modeling approach for assessing human spaceflight systems. The approach is demonstrated using an example, end-to-end risk assessment of a generic crewed space transportation system during a reference mission to the International Space Station. The behavior of the system is modeled using analysis techniques from multiple disciplines in order to properly capture the dynamic time- and state- dependent consequences of failures encountered in different mission phases. This approach facilitates risk-informed design by providing more realistic representation of system failures and interactions; identifying key risk-driving sensitivities, dependencies, and assumptions; and tracking multiple figures of merit within a single, responsive assessment framework that can readily incorporate evolving design information throughout system development.

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  • Development of a Dynamic Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis

    American Nuclear Society International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Analysis, PSA 05 – January, 2005

    Ian Miller and Andrew Burns

    This paper describes a NASA-funded project to develop a reliability analysis module for the GoldSim simulation software capable of modeling highly dynamic systems over the duration of the mission, taking into account variation in input parameters and the evolution of the system. To illustrate the approach, two NASA examples that have previously been evaluated using classical PRA approaches were developed using the simulation-based approach. Issues surrounding the translation of the classical PRA models into a simulation-based approach are discussed, and areas where the simulation-based approach provided additional insights into the system behavior are highlighted.

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  • A Reliability and Availability Sensitivity Study of a Large Photovoltaic System

    25th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Valencia, Spain – September 2010

    E. Collins, S. Miller, M. Mundt, J. Stein, R. Sorensen, J. Granata, and M. Quintana, Sandia National Laboratories

    A reliability and availability model has been developed for a portion of the 4.6 megawatt (MWdc) photovoltaic system operated by Tucson Electric Power (TEP) at Springerville, Arizona using a commercially available software tool, GoldSim™. This reliability model has been populated with life distributions and repair distributions derived from data accumulated during five years of operation of this system. This reliability and availability model was incorporated into another model that simulated daily and seasonal solar irradiance and photovoltaic module performance. The resulting combined model allows prediction of kilowatt hour (kWh) energy output of the system based on availability of components of the system, solar irradiance, and module and inverter performance. This model was then used to study the sensitivity of energy output as a function of photovoltaic (PV) module degradation at different rates and the effect of location (solar irradiance). Plots of cumulative energy output versus time for a 30 year period are provided for each of these cases.

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  • The Comparison of Three Photovoltaic System Designs Using the Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model (PV-RPM)

    Sandia Report SAND2012-10342, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico – December 2012

    Steven P. Miller, Jennifer E. Granata and Joshua S. Stein Sandia National Laboratories

    Most photovoltaic (PV) performance models currently available are designed to use irradiance and weather data and predict PV system output using a module or array performance model and an inverter model. While these models can give accurate results, they do so for an idealized system. That is, a system that does not experience component failures or outages. We have developed the Photovoltaic Reliability and Performance Model (PV-RPM) to more accurately model these PV systems by including a reliability component that simulates failures and repairs of the components of the system, as well as allow for the disruption of the system by external events such as lightning or grid disturbances. In addition, a financial component has also been included to help assess the profitability of a PV system. This report provides some example analyses of three different PV system designs using the PV-RPM.

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  • Accelerated Testing of Metal Foil Tape Joints and Their Effect on Photovoltaic Module Reliability

    25th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, Valencia, Spain – September 2010

    N. Robert Sorensen, Michael A. Quintana, Michael J. Mundt, Edward V. Thomas, Steven P. Miller, and Samuel J. Lucero, Sandia National Laboratories

    A program is underway at Sandia National Laboratories to predict long-term reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The vehicle for the reliability predictions is a system performance model, currently being run under a simulation software called GoldSim™. The model includes inputs for module performance, irradiance, and degradation. In order to be truly predictive, physics-informed degradation processes and failure mechanisms need to be included in the model. This paper describes accelerated life testing of metal foil tapes used in thin-film PV modules, and how tape joint degradation, a possible failure mode, can be incorporated into the model.

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  • A Quantitative Exposure Model Simulating Human Norovirus Transmission During Preparation of Deli Sandwiches

    International Journal of Food Microbiology, Vol. 196, Pgs. 126-136 – March 2015

    Stals A, Jacxsens L, Baert L, Uyttendaele M, Ghent University, Van Coillie E, Flemish Government, Institute for Agricultural and Fisheries Research.

    This journal article describes a study that simulates human noroviruses (HuNoV) transmission during the preparation of deli sandwiches in a sandwich bar. A quantitative exposure model was developed by combining the GoldSim and @Risk® software packages.

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  • Prevention of Food Worker Transmission of Foodborne Pathogens

    Food Service Technology Volume 4 Issue 1, pgs. 31-49 – March 2004

    Barry Michaels and Cheryll Keller, The Michaels Group; Matthew Blevins, University of Florida; Greg Paoli and Todd Ruthman, Decisionalysis Risk Consultants; Ewen Todd, Michigan State University; Christopher Griffith, University of Wales Institute

    This paper describes the use of GoldSim and other risk analysis tools to model pathogen transmission in food handling. These models were used to explore the effectiveness of different food safety measures.

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  • GoldSim Modeling for the Options Analysis for the Smoky Site, Nevada Test Site

    Neptune and Company Project Report – July 2004

    John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    This webpage describes a Neptune and Company project to develop a GoldSim model to assist in evaluating different options for maintaining power lines running through a contaminated area of the Nevada Test Site.

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  • Risk Assessment for Unbound Granular Material Performance in Rural Queensland Pavements

    Master's Thesis – 2006

    Meera Creagh, University of Queensland

    This thesis describes the use of GoldSim to evaluate different material choices for road-building projects.

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  • Marine Biogeochemical and Ecosystem Modeling

    Course Material for "Introduction to Climate Modeling", University of Bremen –

    Michael Schulz, University of Bremen

    This web page includes links to a presentation describing the use of GoldSim for climate models and also includes a number of example GoldSim Player models.

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  • A Multipathway Model for High Explosives and Barium Transport Using GoldSim

    Proceedings of the American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting – May 2002

    Los Alamos National Laboratory

    This paper describes a GoldSim model developed to assist in characterizing, monitoring and possible remediation activities for an ecosystem contaminated by outfalls from high explosive production sites at the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

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  • Predicting Risks in the Earth Sciences: Volcanological Examples

    Los Alamos Science, Number 29, pgs. 56-69 – 2005

    Greg Valentine, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    This article describes the process of volcanological risk assessment, including describing how this is modeled, using GoldSim, within the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment.

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  • Mathematic Models to Simulate the Introduction and Spread of Moniliasis of Cacao in Brazil (in Portuguese)

    Report for the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Supply – March 2010

    Ricardo Sgrillo, CEPLAC

    This report (in Portugese) describes the development of several stochastic and deterministic models to evaluate the risk of introduction and spread of the cacao frosty pod rot disease, from Peru to Brazil.

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  • Comparison of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Methods Under Different Noise Levels

    Presentation, PSAM12: Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference – June 2014

    David Esh and Christopher Grossman, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are an integral part of probabilistic assessment methods used to evaluate the safety of a variety of different systems. In many cases the systems are complex, information is sparse, and resources are limited. Models are used to represent and analyze the systems. To incorporate uncertainty, the developed models are commonly probabilistic. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are used to focus iterative model development activities, facilitate regulatory review of the model, and enhance interpretation of the model results. A large variety of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses techniques have been developed as modeling has advanced and become more prevalent. This paper compares the practical performance of six different uncertainty and sensitivity analyses techniques over ten different test functions under different noise levels. In addition, insights from two real-world examples are developed.

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Energy and Natural Resources

  • Water Production Tool for Coal Seam Gas

    Enhancement of the Coal Seam Gas Water Production Tool, Deliverable 4: Addendum to Technical Report – March 2013

    Greg Keir, Lucy Reading, Sue Vink

    A water production tool was developed by Klohn Crippen Berger using GoldSim to predict the potential volumes of water extracted by the coal seam gas industry within the Bowen and Surat Basins in Queensland over the next 50 years.

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  • A System Model for Geologic Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide

    Article in Environmental Science and Technology, Volume 43, Number 3, pgs. 565-570 – December 2008

    Philip Stauffer, Hari Viswanathan, Rajesh Pawar and George Guthrie, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    This article describes the CO2-PENS model developed to simulate capture, transport and injection in different geological reservoirs.

    Reference

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  • The CO2-PENS Water Treatment Model: Evaluation of Cost Profiles and Importance Scenarios for Brackish Water Extracted During Carbon Storage.

    Journal article, Energy Procedia 63, 7205–7214 – 2014

    Sullivan Graham, E.Ja, Chu, S., Pawar, R.J., Stauffer, P.H. with Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Extraction of in-situ water is one of the options for minimizing the impact of large-scale CO2 injection in saline aquifers or during enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The amount of water to be produced could be significant depending on in-situ conditions and injection parameters. Evaluating the costs of treatment is complex, as the quality of the water may vary considerably from treatments based on well-known seawater chemistry, including reverse osmosis. We evaluated a brackish-salinity water to be extracted from a future CO2 injection and storage location in eastern China for prototype treatment costs for both cooling water and boiler water final treatment goals. Costs for treatment of the water, excluding costs for organic pretreatment, were within the range of previously analyzed costs for higher-salinity waters but are likely to be lower when economies of scale are included for a full-scale, higher volume treatment facility. Importance analysis lends insight into process factors that may not contribute the highest unit costs to treatment but on whole are very important to total system costs. We found that the acid rate for pretreatment, zero-liquid discharge disposal, feed water temperature, and water transportation costs, were the most important factors within total system costs for this analysis. The CO2-PENS Water Treatment Model was developed using GoldSim.

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  • A Method and Cost Model for Treatment of Water Extracted During Geologic CO2 Storage

    Journal article for the International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control – December 2013

    Enid Sullivan, Shaoping Chu, Philip Stauffer, Richard Middleton, and Rajesh Pawar with Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Extraction of water as a part of CO2 storage may be desirable for risk management and process optimization. Treatment and repurposing of this water creates a useful resource and reduces the volumes that must otherwise be disposed. To better understand the tradeoff of costs versus processes and risks, we use a systems approach to evaluate treatment costs that are reasonable for the chemical and physical qualities (salinity, temperature, pH and turbidity) of water that could be extracted from target geologic formations. We evaluate primary and secondary pretreatments, membrane desalination processes (reverse osmosis and nanofiltration), thermal processes (multiple effect distillation and multi-stage flash distillation), and several concentrate (brine) disposal methods. The system model was developed in GoldSim. The results indicate that for waters extracted from storage sites, salinities and temperatures may often be higher than for municipal treatment scenarios. Thus, thermal treatment methods are more cost-feasible than membrane methods in many cases, although pressure recovery methods for reverse osmosis can mitigate this. Treatment costs including concentrate disposal fall within a range of US$0.50–2.50/ton CO2 injected, although some costs can be much higher (up to US$30/ton CO2 under certain concentrate disposal cost ranges). A sensitivity analysis shows that temperature is the most important in determining costs followed by selection of concentrate disposal method.

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  • Forecasting Coal Seam Gas Water Production in Queensland's Surat and Southern Bowen Basins

    Technical Report, Prepared for the State of Queensland (Department of Natural Resources and Mines) – September 2012

    Klohn Crippen Berger

    A basin-wide model was built to help forecast produced water from coal seam gas (CSG) operations in Queensland, Australia. This report describes how the tool works and reports a summary of findings for the forecast period of 2010-2060.The Water Production Tool (WPT) required a robust software platform to accommodate both quantitative inputs and inferred relationships. The platform needed to be flexible, transparent and represent the processes inherent in the system with appropriate recognition of uncertainty in all of the variables. The platform selected for the WPT was GoldSim, which permitted construction of a multi-tiered, practical and modifiable tool, with the additional option of stochastic (Monte Carlo) modelling.

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  • A CO2-PENS Model of Methods and Costs for Treatment of Water Extracted During Geologic Carbon Sequestration

    International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control – December 2012

    Enid Sullivan, Shaoping Chu, Philip Stauffer, and Rajesh Pawar with Los Alamos National Laboratory

    Extraction of water during subsurface carbon sequestration may be useful for the control of CO2 placement, reducing pressure risks, and mitigating environmental risks. Desalination of this water may be possible if costs are kept low, in order to minimize the quantity that must be reinjected or otherwise disposed. Added value may be recovered in the form of treated water that can be reused by carbon capture, sequestration, and other industrial processes. Total dissolved solids will range from 10,000mg/L up to over 100,000 mg/L, and temperatures may range up to 120°C, once the water is brought to the surface. We have developed a system-level, mesoscale analysis module for the CO2-Predicting engineered natural system model to analyze the feasibility of treatment, the costs of treatment, the value of energy recovery, and the costs of concentrate disposal. Costs are derived from a database of reported literature values. The model, developed in GoldSim, allows the user to select the most economic options for treatment, to compare costs, and to understand the trade-off of risks and costs. Results of preliminary modeling indicate that while reverse osmosis is feasible within certain temperature and salinity ranges, nanofiltration and thermal methods may be more cost-effective or otherwise feasible.

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  • Investigations on Atmospheric CO2 Impacts of the Energetic Use of Biomass by Global Carbon Cycle Models

    17th International Drying Symposium (IDS 2010), Magdeburg, Germany – October 2010

    Ringer, D.U., Hochschule Furtwangen University

    Energy intensive activities such as drying are in the focus of attention of CO2-reduction schemes. Origin and quality of the energy used are key issues for the development of the atmospheric CO2-content. Biomass as energy source is discussed as a possi-bility to reduce atmospheric CO2. However, the line of logic comes from simple static balances. Yet, CO2 is part of the Global Carbon Cycle which is a large, global, dynamic network. A simple but globally accurate dynamic model of this cycle was built using GoldSim, which develops scenarios to look at the biomass arguments from a dynamic point of view.

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  • Uncertainty Analysis for Unprotected Loss-of-Heat-Sink, Loss-of-Flow, and Transient-Overpower Events in Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors

    International Conference on Fast Reactors and Related Fuel Cycles (FR 2009), Kyoto, Japan – December 2009

    Morris, E. E. and Nutt, W. M., Argonne National Laboratory

    While the traditional approach to reactor safety analyses remain deterministic, this paper considers a stochastic approach for explicitly including uncertainty in safety parameters by applying Monte Carlo sampling coupled with established deterministic reactor safety analysis tools.

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  • Stochastic Simulation of Rumen Degradable Protein Surplus in Grazing Dairy Cows

    Animal Feed Science and Technology, Volume 143, Issue 1, pgs. 280-295 – May 2008

    Pacheco, David, AgResearch Limited, Food, Metabolism and Microbiology Section, Grasslands Research Centre

    This paper describes an application of GoldSim that simulates the many factors influencing the quality of a cows' diet, including the weather, level of fertilization, and the age of plants. Stochastic variables for pasture chemical composition and dry matter intake were incorporated in the model. Stochastic simulation may be useful to explore the likelihood of responses to management scenarios designed to increase the efficiency of dietary nitrogen use in pastoral systems characterized by uncertainty and variability.

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  • Modeling of Coal Combustion Products (CCP) Management Options at a Coal-fired Power Plant

    Proceedings of the 2003 International Ash Utilization Symposium – April 2005

    Todd Stong and Ron Jorgenson, Golder Associates; Russ Nelson and Tony Stroh, Great River Energy

    This paper describes a model built to evaluate management plans for coal combustion process in light of market conditions and pending EPA regulations.

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Waste Management

  • Safety Assessment for the Radon-Type Surface Disposal Facility at Saakadze, Georgia

    Conference Proceedings, WM2015 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA – March, 2015

    Bernt Haverkamp, DBE Technology GmbH and Heinz Kroeger, TÜV NORD EnSys Hannover

    The Saakadze disposal facility is located about 40 km from Tbilisi and was planned and constructed during Soviet times as Radon-type surface facility to accommodate up to 600 m3 of low and intermediate level waste generated on the territory of Georgia. The disposal facility was operated from 1963 until its closure in 1995. The vast majority of waste in the Saakadze facility has been disposed of in two near surface concrete vaults with typical Radon-type dimensions, which cover layers already show significant structural damages. For the long-term calculations a mathematical model has been developed using the GoldSim simulation environment. GoldSim simulates the material transport and takes care of radioactive decay and the ingrowth of daughter nuclides.

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  • Preliminary Performance Assessment for the Waste Management Area C at the Hanford Site in Southeast Washington

    TOC-WP-14-4902 -FP Revision 0, Prepared for the U.S. DOE – January 2015

    M. Bergeron, S. Mehta, W.J. McMahon, M. Kozak, A. Aly, M. Connelly, K. Singleton, S. Eberlein, C. Kemp, and R.D. Hildebrand

    A performance assessment (PA) of a Single-Shell Tank Waste Management Area located at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington is being conducted to fulfill permitting requirements. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses using a system level GoldSim model is being used to help quantify the importance of key input parameters on transport behavior and dose.

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  • GoldSim models of long-term radiation impact of conditionally cleared radioactive material

    Progress in Nuclear Energy, Vol. 67, pgs. 88-97 – August 2013

    Michal Panik and Vladimir Necas of Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava

    The article is focused on modeling and calculation of long-term radiation impact on inhabitants living near decommissioned nuclear installations. Models (scenarios) of various building applications were simulated using GoldSim software with Radionuclide Transport Module. Scenarios were selected according to information from the civil engineering business to cover the types of buildings most suitable for application of conditionally cleared material. The results of the calculations showed that conditional clearance represents no significant safety issue in the long-term. Calculated individual effective doses received by inhabitants did not exceed the given dose constraint (10 μSv/year) in case of any scenario evaluated. Detailed and transparent studies of the long-term impact of conditionally cleared materials are important especially for winning of public acceptance.

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  • Safety Assessment for a Surface Repository in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone

    Conference Proceedings, WM2013 Conference – February 2013

    B. Haverkamp, J. Krone, I. Shybetskyi

    The Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility (RWDF) Buryakovka was constructed in 1986 as part of the intervention measures after the accident at Chernobyl NPP (ChNPP). Today, RWDF Buryakovka is still being operated but its maximum capacity is nearly reached. Plans for enlargement of the facility exist since more than 10 years but have not been implemented yet. A safety analysis report of the facility in its current state (SAR) and a preliminary safety analysis report (PSAR) based on the planned enlargement were prepared. For both safety analysis reports, SAR and PSAR, the assessment of the long-term safety led to results that were either within regulatory limits or within the limits allowing for a specific situational evaluation by the regulator. The repository model was built in GoldSim to carry out the long-term calculations using the Radionuclide Transport Module, which takes not only care of the transport equations describing the mass transport between the different compartments of the model but also of radioactive decay and ingrowth of daughter nuclides with time.

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  • Safety Assessment for the Kozloduy National Disposal Facility in Bulgaria

    Conference Proceedings, WM2013 Conference – February 2013

    E. Biurrun, A. Lázaro, I. Stefanova, B. Haverkamp, A. Miralles

    Due to the early decommissioning of four Water-Water Energy Reactors (WWER) 440-V230 reactors at the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) near the city of Kozloduy in Bulgaria, large amounts of low and intermediate radioactive waste will arise much earlier than initially scheduled. In or-der to manage the radioactive waste from the early decommissioning, Bulgaria has intensified its efforts to provide a near surface disposal facility at Radiana with the required capacity. To this end, a project was launched to provide the complete technical planning including the preparation of the Intermediate Safety Assessment Report. Preliminary results of operational and long-term safety show compliance with the Bulgarian regulatory requirements. The long-term calculations carried out for the Radiana site are also a good example of how analysis of safety assessment results can be used for iterative improvements of the assessment by pointing out uncertainties and areas of future investigations to reduce such uncertainties in regard to the potential radiological impact. GoldSim was used to estimate the long-term evolution of the future repository at Radiana predicted a maximum total annual dose for members of the critical group, which is carried to approximately 80 % by C-14 for a specific ingestion pathway. Based on this result and the outcome of the sensitivity analysis, existing uncertainties were evaluated and areas for reasonable future investigations to reduce these uncertainties were identified.

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  • Risk Evaluation of a Mercury Containment System

    FIU Electronic Theses Dissertations, Paper S35 – November 2011

    Ortez Garay, Crstian A. (Florida International University)

    This is a Master's Thesis describing the methodology used to estimate mercury concentrations and risk of exceeding drinking water standards at a receptor well, located near a waste management facility at the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. GoldSim was used to evaluate the risk based on uncertainty of hydrological and soil parameters used to estimate potential mercury releases from a future containment system. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the parameters that the model is most sensitive to. Using Monte Carlo analysis, the risk was estimated for various design periods and the overall risk of drinking water contamination was well below standard limits.

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  • Decision & Management Tools for DNAPL Sites: Optimization of Chlorinated Solvent Source and Plume Remediation Considering Uncertainty

    Final Report, ESTCP Project ER-200704 – 2010

    Falta, Ronald W.; Newell, Charles J.; Rao, P. Suresh C.; Liang, Hailian; Farhat, Shahla K.; Basu, Nandita

    The objective of this project was to develop a new probabilistic remediation modeling program, Probabilistic Remediation Evaluation Model for chlorinated Solvents (PREMChlor), for simultaneously evaluating the effectiveness of source and plume remediation considering the uncertainties in all major parameters, thereby supporting the remediation selection process. PREMChlor was developed by linking the analytical model REMChlor to a Monte Carlo modeling package, GoldSim, via a FORTRAN Dynamic Link Library (DLL) application.

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  • Code-to-Code Benchmarking of the PORFLOW and GoldSim Contaminant Transport Models

    WM2011 Conference, Phoenix, AZ – March 2011

    Robert Hiergesell and Glenn Taylor, Savannah River National Laboratory

    An investigation was conducted to compare and evaluate contaminant transport results of two model codes, GoldSim and PORFLOW, using a simple 1-D string of elements in each code. The comparisons were made solely in terms of the ability of each code to perform contaminant transport. The purpose of the investigation was to establish a basis for, and to validate follow-on work that was conducted in which a 1-D GoldSim model developed by abstracting information from PORFLOW 2-D and 3-D unsaturated and saturated zone models and then benchmarked to produce equivalent contaminant transport results. Although prior validation and verification work has been conducted for both PORFLOW and GoldSim a direct comparison of results from both codes, when evaluating the same model domain, was conducted to confirm this work and justify the benchmarking exercises that compared 1-D to multi-dimensional models.

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  • Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) for Environmental Remediation and Waste Management

    WM2012 Conference, Phoenix, AZ – February 2012

    David L. Pentz, Ralph H. Stoll, John T . Greeves, Predicus LLC; R. Ian Miller, GoldSim Technology Group; W. Mark Nutt, Argonne National Laboratory

    The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation’s nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM's projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks.

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  • Understanding Controls on the Performance of Engineered Barrier Systems in Repositories for High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Fuel

    Environment Agency Report SC060055 – September 2010

    A. Bond, M.J. Egan, R. Metcalfe, P.Robinson, G.Towler (Quintessa)

    The primary aim of this report was to summarize and analyse existing knowledge on processes that could influence the performance of an EBS and hence the long-term safety performance of a repository. After reviewing the safety functions attributed to various barrier components by radioactive waste management programmes across the world, and identifying groups of features, events and processes (FEPs) that describe these safety functions and threats to these safety functions, calculations using GoldSim were carried out to explore the significance of each of these FEPs as controls on the performance of barrier components.

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  • The Development of a Safety Assessment Approach and its Implication on the Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    Nuclear Engineering and Technology, Vol. 42, No. 1 – February 2010

    Yongsoo Hwang and Chul-Hyung Kang, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

    This paper discusses use of GoldSim to evaluate the potential radionuclide release from a repository based on the Advanced Korean Reference Disposal System (A-KRS). Among other advantages, the development of the A-KRS promises a significant reduction of the repository area due to the removal of decay heat from a certain number of fission products such as Sr-90 and Cs-137.

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  • Modelling of Near-Field Radionuclide Transport Phenomena in a KBS-3V Type of Repository for Nuclear Waste with GoldSim Code - and Verification Against Previous Methods

    Posiva Working Report 2010-14, Posiva Oy, Finland – March 2010

    Veli-Matti Pulkkanen and Henrik Nordman

    This report describes the use of GoldSim to model the near-field radionuclide transport processes in a KBS-3V type of nuclear waste repository in Finland.

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  • A GoldSim Model for the Safety Assessment of a HLW Repository

    Progress in Nuclear Energy Volume 51, Issues 6-7, pgs. 746-759 – August/September 2009

    Youn-Myong Lee and Yongsoo Hwang, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

    This article describes a GoldSim model of a hypothetical high level waste repository in South Korea, and describes the model's response to three hypothetical situations (groundwater intrusion, earthquake and accidental human intrusion).

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  • Performance Assessment for Depleted Uranium Disposal in a Near-Surface Disposal Facility

    Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management XXXII, MRS Proceedings, Volume 1124 – Fall 2008

    Karen Pinkston, David W. Esh, Christopher J. Grossman

    This paper discusses a GoldSim model built by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the potential impacts of disposal of large quantities of depleted uranium in a near-surface disposal facility.

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  • Development of the ENVI Simulator to Estimate Korean SNF Flow and its Cost

    Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Environmental Remediation And Radioactive Waste Management ICEM 2009 – October 2009

    Yongsoo Hwang and Ian Miller

    This paper describes an integrated model developed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea.

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  • GoldSim Modeling of the West Beach Landfill, Alameda Point, California

    Neptune and Company Project Report – March 2002

    John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    This web page describes a Neptune and Company project to evaluate remediation options for the West Beach Landfill on the grounds of the former Naval Air Station Alameda.

    The page includes background on the project, and a link to a more detailed report on the model.

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  • Developing Hazardous Waste Acceptance Criteria

    Presentation – 2005

    David Hall and David Drury, Golder Associates

    This presentation describes the process of developing acceptance criteria for monolithic wastes.

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  • A Comparative Study Between GoldSim and AMBER Based Biosphere Assessment Models for an HLW

    Transactions of the Korean Nuclear Society Autmn Meeting, PyeongChang, Korea – October 2007

    Youn-Myoung Lee and Yongsoo Hwang, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

    To demonstrate the performance of a repository, GoldSim was used to examine the dose exposure rate to people due to long-term nuclide releases from a high-level waste repository and the results are compared to that of a similar model built in AMBER. The GoldSim model integrates the results of complex nuclide transport models through engineered barriers and geological fractured rock media surrounding an HLW repository site for a consecutive transport through a biosphere.

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  • Update of the Safety Assessment Of The Underground Richard Repository, Litoměřice

    Conference Proceedings, WM'05 Conference, Tucson, AZ. – March 2005

    B. Haverkamp, E. Biurrun, with DBE TECHNOLOGY GmbH, and M. Kučerka with Radioactive Waste Repository Authority, Czech Republic

    The Richard Repository, situated at the outskirts of Litoměřice in the North of Czech Republic, has served as a repository for low and intermediate level institutional radioactive waste since the mid nineteen-sixties. Up to now, some 25,000 waste packages and thereby a significant activity of about 1015 Bq have been disposed of. Richard, originally a limestone mine excavated into a hill close to the Elbe River, was later used for military production leaving a number of wellconditioned underground cavities.In order to quantify the radiological consequences of the changed closure concept, the 2002 SA has been adapted to acknowledge the differences in the source term resulting from the changed technical concept. Also the previously deterministic model has been exchanged by a computer model that also allows probabilistic calculations using the GoldSim

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  • Do-or-Die at Yucca Mountain

    Wired Magazine – November 2004

    David Ewing Duncan

    This Wired Magazine article provides a general overview of the Yucca Mountain project including a discussion of how GoldSim is used to try quantify the performance of the repository into the distant future.

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  • Risks and Uncertainties Associated With High-Level Waste Tank Closure

    Proceedings of the 2002 Materials Research Society Fall Meeting – Fall 2002

    David Esh, Anna Bradford, Kristina Banovac, and Jennifer Davis, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

    This paper discusses a performance assessment model of closure of a radioactive waste tank developed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, using GoldSim, to independently verify results from a Department of Energy assessment of the same project.

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  • A Systems Modeling Approach for Performance Assessment of the Mochovce National Radioactive Waste Repository, Slovak Republic

    Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 9, 05821 – 2007

    John Tauxe and Paul Black, Neptune and Company; Vaclav Hanusik, VUJE Trnava, Inc.

    This paper discusses the performance assessment of a low- and intermediate-level waste repository in the Slovak Republic.

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  • GoldSim Modeling of the Greater Confinement Disposal Boreholes

    Neptune and Company Project Report – March 2002

    John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    This webpage describes a Neptune and Company project to model the performance of borehole-type disposal of low-level nuclear waste at the Nevada Test Site. The page includes background on the project and a general discussion of the model design and structure.

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  • Management of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site using Decision-Based, Probabilistic Performance Assessment Modeling

    Proceedings of the 2003 Waste Management Symposium – February 2003

    Jhon Carilli, U. S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office. Bruce Crowe, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Paul Black, John Tauxe, Tom Stockton, and Kate Catlett, Neptune and Company; Vefa Yucel, Bechtel Nevada

    This paper describes performance assessment activity for low-level waste facilities at the Nevada Test Site.

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  • Use of Simplified Models in the Performance Assessment of a High-Level Waste Repository System in Japan

    Proceedings of the NUCEF2005 Symposium – February 2005

    Osvaldo Pensado and Sitakanta Mohanty, Southwest Research Institute; Takeshi Kanno and Yoshikatsu Tochigi, Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.

    This paper and website describes a project to build a GoldSim model for a hypothetical high-level waste repository in Japan.

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  • A Generic Example of Probabilistic Radiological Performance Assessment Modeling

    Neptune and Company Project Report –

    John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    This web page describes a generic performance assessment model developed in GoldSim for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities.

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  • Modelling of Processes Occurring in Deep Geological Repositories

    Czechoslovak Journal of Physics, Volume 56, D623-D628 – December 2006

    D. Vopálka, Czech Technical University in Prague; D. Lukin and A. Vokál, Nuclear Research Institute Rez

    This paper describes GoldSim modeling techniques for several different processes that occur in a deep geologic repository for the storage of nuclear waste.

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  • Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for the "Initial Defect in the Canister" Reference Model

    Workreport 2013-25, Posiva Oy, Eurajoki, Finland – August 2013

    Jose Luis Cormenzana

    In Posiva Oy´s Safety Case "TURVA-2012", the repository system scenarios leading to radionuclide releases were been identified. Three potential causes of canister failure and radionuclide release were considered: (i) the presence of an initial defect in the copper shell of one canister that penetrates the shell completely, (ii) corrosion of the copper overpack, that occurs more rapidly if buffer density is reduced, e.g. by erosion, (iii) shear movement on fractures intersecting the deposition hole. All three failure modes were analysed deterministically. This report describes a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) for the "initial defect in the canister" reference model.

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  • SOAR: A Model For Scoping Of Options And Analyzing Risk Version 1.0 User Guide

    Report prepared for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Contract No. NRC–02–07–006 – August 2011

    Chris Markely et al. (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission)

    This document is a user guide that describes the operation and capabilities of the Scoping of Options and Analyzing Risk (SOAR) model. The SOAR model is designed to provide the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff timely risk and performance insights for a variety of potential high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal options. The SOAR model is an analytic scoping tool that the staff will use to develop an effective and efficient risk-informed, performance-based licensing program for geologic disposal of HLW.

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  • The 2011 Environmental Safety Case: Assessment of Long-Term Radiological Impacts

    LLWR/ESC/R(11)10028 – May 2011

    LLW Repository Ltd

    The Low Level Waste Repository (LLWR) is the United Kingdom’s principal facility for the disposal of solid low-level radioactive waste. The LLWR is owned by the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) and operated on behalf of the NDA by a Site Licence Company (SLC) – LLW Repository Ltd.

    This report is one of a series of reports that present the evidence underpinning the 2011 Environmental Safety Case for the LLWR – the 2011 ESC. The objective of this report is to assess the radiological impacts to humans that may occur in the long term, as a result of disposal of solid radioactive waste at the LLWR.

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