Environmental Systems Applications

Radioactive/Hazardous Waste

Evaluation and Management of Radioactive and Hazardous Waste Sites

Radioactive/Hazardous Waste

By combining the flexibility of a general-purpose and highly-graphical probabilistic simulation framework with a specialized module to support radionuclide transport modeling, GoldSim allows you to create realistic models of complex, real-world multi-media environmental systems.

Because of these powerful capabilities, GoldSim is the premier tool in the world for carrying out probabilistic performance and safety assessments of proposed and existing radioactive waste management sites. These performance assessments all utilize the GoldSim Radionuclide Transport (RT) Module, which includes specialized and powerful features to facilitate simulation of radionuclide transport through engineered barriers and the environment.

GoldSim can accurately and efficiently model complex processes such as decay and ingrowth of reaction/decay products, solubility constraints, sorption onto porous media, release from engineered barriers, diffusive trainsport, and transport of contaminants on particulates.

Shallow Disposal

GoldSim was originally applied to evaluating the performance of radioactive waste disposal systems in the US (US Department of Energy), Japan (JAEA) and Spain (Enresa).  It has subsequently been used by government and commercial organizations to model existing and proposed facilities in nearly 20 countries worldwide.



White Papers

Technical Papers

  • Development of an Execution Strategy Analysis Capability and Tool for Storage of Used Nuclear Fuel

    Publication for the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA-CN-226-34 – June 2015

    R. Stoll1, J. Greeves1, and J. Voss with Predicus LLC, USA; A. Keizur and A. Neir with Golder Associates Inc., USA; N. Saraeva and W. Nutt with Argonne National Laboratory, USA

    An Execution Strategy Analysis (ESA) capability and tool is being developed to evaluate alternative execution strategies for future deployment of a consolidated Interim Storage Facility (ISF) using a consent-based siting process per the Administration’s Strategy for the Management and Disposal of Used Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste. Application of an ESA approach not only leverages on but also goes beyond traditional project analysis tools. The ESA tool allows for on-going performance assessment of the evolving project execution plan that takes into account significant assumptions, risks, and uncertainties throughout the project lifecycle. The ESA process and tool are used to support the development of plans, budgets, and alternative execution/ implementation strategies for meeting the goals in the Strategy. The project is being applied in a dynamic probabilistic simulation model using GoldSim.


  • Modelling of Contaminant Release from a Uranium Mine Tailings Site

    Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management (ICEM) – September 2007

    R. Kahnt and T. Metschies

    Uranium mining and milling continuing from the early 1960s until 1990 close to the town of Seelingstädt in Eastern Germany resulted in 4 large tailings impoundments. Leakage from these tailings impoundments enters the underlying aquifers and is discharged into surface water streams. High concentration of salts, uranium and several heavy metals are released from the tailings. A compartment model representing the tailings impoundments and the surrounding aquifers for the calculation of contaminant release and transport was set up using GoldSim. This compartment model describes the time dependent hydraulic conditions within the tailings and the surrounding aquifers taking into account hydraulic and geotechnical processes influencing the hydraulic properties of the tailings material. A simple geochemical approach taking into account sorption processes as well as retardation by applying a kd-approach was also implemented. The model was used to predict the effect of various remediation scenarios in a fast and traceable way.


  • GoldSim Modeling for the Options Analysis for the Smoky Site, Nevada Test Site

    Neptune and Company Project Report – July 2004

    John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    This webpage describes a Neptune and Company project to develop a GoldSim model to assist in evaluating different options for maintaining power lines running through a contaminated area of the Nevada Test Site.

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  • A Multipathway Model for High Explosives and Barium Transport Using GoldSim

    Proceedings of the American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting – May 2002

    Los Alamos National Laboratory

    This paper describes a GoldSim model developed to assist in characterizing, monitoring and possible remediation activities for an ecosystem contaminated by outfalls from high explosive production sites at the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

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  • Predicting Risks in the Earth Sciences: Volcanological Examples

    Los Alamos Science, Number 29, pgs. 56-69 – 2005

    Greg Valentine, Los Alamos National Laboratory

    This article describes the process of volcanological risk assessment, including describing how this is modeled, using GoldSim, within the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment.


  • Comparison of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Methods Under Different Noise Levels

    Presentation, PSAM12: Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management Conference – June 2014

    David Esh and Christopher Grossman, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are an integral part of probabilistic assessment methods used to evaluate the safety of a variety of different systems. In many cases the systems are complex, information is sparse, and resources are limited. Models are used to represent and analyze the systems. To incorporate uncertainty, the developed models are commonly probabilistic. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are used to focus iterative model development activities, facilitate regulatory review of the model, and enhance interpretation of the model results. A large variety of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses techniques have been developed as modeling has advanced and become more prevalent. This paper compares the practical performance of six different uncertainty and sensitivity analyses techniques over ten different test functions under different noise levels. In addition, insights from two real-world examples are developed.


  • Safety Assessment for the Radon-Type Surface Disposal Facility at Saakadze, Georgia

    Conference Proceedings, WM2015 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA – March, 2015

    Bernt Haverkamp, DBE Technology GmbH and Heinz Kroeger, TÜV NORD EnSys Hannover

    The Saakadze disposal facility is located about 40 km from Tbilisi and was planned and constructed during Soviet times as Radon-type surface facility to accommodate up to 600 m3 of low and intermediate level waste generated on the territory of Georgia. The disposal facility was operated from 1963 until its closure in 1995. The vast majority of waste in the Saakadze facility has been disposed of in two near surface concrete vaults with typical Radon-type dimensions, which cover layers already show significant structural damages. For the long-term calculations a mathematical model has been developed using the GoldSim simulation environment. GoldSim simulates the material transport and takes care of radioactive decay and the ingrowth of daughter nuclides.


  • Preliminary Performance Assessment for the Waste Management Area C at the Hanford Site in Southeast Washington

    TOC-WP-14-4902 -FP Revision 0, Prepared for the U.S. DOE – January 2015

    M. Bergeron, S. Mehta, W.J. McMahon, M. Kozak, A. Aly, M. Connelly, K. Singleton, S. Eberlein, C. Kemp, and R.D. Hildebrand

    A performance assessment (PA) of a Single-Shell Tank Waste Management Area located at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington is being conducted to fulfill permitting requirements. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses using a system level GoldSim model is being used to help quantify the importance of key input parameters on transport behavior and dose.


  • GoldSim models of long-term radiation impact of conditionally cleared radioactive material

    Progress in Nuclear Energy, Vol. 67, pgs. 88-97 – August 2013

    Michal Panik and Vladimir Necas of Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava

    The article is focused on modeling and calculation of long-term radiation impact on inhabitants living near decommissioned nuclear installations. Models (scenarios) of various building applications were simulated using GoldSim software with Radionuclide Transport Module. Scenarios were selected according to information from the civil engineering business to cover the types of buildings most suitable for application of conditionally cleared material. The results of the calculations showed that conditional clearance represents no significant safety issue in the long-term. Calculated individual effective doses received by inhabitants did not exceed the given dose constraint (10 μSv/year) in case of any scenario evaluated. Detailed and transparent studies of the long-term impact of conditionally cleared materials are important especially for winning of public acceptance.

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  • Safety Assessment for a Surface Repository in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone

    Conference Proceedings, WM2013 Conference – February 2013

    B. Haverkamp, J. Krone, I. Shybetskyi

    The Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility (RWDF) Buryakovka was constructed in 1986 as part of the intervention measures after the accident at Chernobyl NPP (ChNPP). Today, RWDF Buryakovka is still being operated but its maximum capacity is nearly reached. Plans for enlargement of the facility exist since more than 10 years but have not been implemented yet. A safety analysis report of the facility in its current state (SAR) and a preliminary safety analysis report (PSAR) based on the planned enlargement were prepared. For both safety analysis reports, SAR and PSAR, the assessment of the long-term safety led to results that were either within regulatory limits or within the limits allowing for a specific situational evaluation by the regulator. The repository model was built in GoldSim to carry out the long-term calculations using the Radionuclide Transport Module, which takes not only care of the transport equations describing the mass transport between the different compartments of the model but also of radioactive decay and ingrowth of daughter nuclides with time.


  • Safety Assessment for the Kozloduy National Disposal Facility in Bulgaria

    Conference Proceedings, WM2013 Conference – February 2013

    E. Biurrun, A. Lázaro, I. Stefanova, B. Haverkamp, A. Miralles

    Due to the early decommissioning of four Water-Water Energy Reactors (WWER) 440-V230 reactors at the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) near the city of Kozloduy in Bulgaria, large amounts of low and intermediate radioactive waste will arise much earlier than initially scheduled. In or-der to manage the radioactive waste from the early decommissioning, Bulgaria has intensified its efforts to provide a near surface disposal facility at Radiana with the required capacity. To this end, a project was launched to provide the complete technical planning including the preparation of the Intermediate Safety Assessment Report. Preliminary results of operational and long-term safety show compliance with the Bulgarian regulatory requirements. The long-term calculations carried out for the Radiana site are also a good example of how analysis of safety assessment results can be used for iterative improvements of the assessment by pointing out uncertainties and areas of future investigations to reduce such uncertainties in regard to the potential radiological impact. GoldSim was used to estimate the long-term evolution of the future repository at Radiana predicted a maximum total annual dose for members of the critical group, which is carried to approximately 80 % by C-14 for a specific ingestion pathway. Based on this result and the outcome of the sensitivity analysis, existing uncertainties were evaluated and areas for reasonable future investigations to reduce these uncertainties were identified.


  • Risk Evaluation of a Mercury Containment System

    FIU Electronic Theses Dissertations, Paper S35 – November 2011

    Ortez Garay, Crstian A. (Florida International University)

    This is a Master's Thesis describing the methodology used to estimate mercury concentrations and risk of exceeding drinking water standards at a receptor well, located near a waste management facility at the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. GoldSim was used to evaluate the risk based on uncertainty of hydrological and soil parameters used to estimate potential mercury releases from a future containment system. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine the parameters that the model is most sensitive to. Using Monte Carlo analysis, the risk was estimated for various design periods and the overall risk of drinking water contamination was well below standard limits.


  • Decision & Management Tools for DNAPL Sites: Optimization of Chlorinated Solvent Source and Plume Remediation Considering Uncertainty

    Final Report, ESTCP Project ER-200704 – 2010

    Falta, Ronald W.; Newell, Charles J.; Rao, P. Suresh C.; Liang, Hailian; Farhat, Shahla K.; Basu, Nandita

    The objective of this project was to develop a new probabilistic remediation modeling program, Probabilistic Remediation Evaluation Model for chlorinated Solvents (PREMChlor), for simultaneously evaluating the effectiveness of source and plume remediation considering the uncertainties in all major parameters, thereby supporting the remediation selection process. PREMChlor was developed by linking the analytical model REMChlor to a Monte Carlo modeling package, GoldSim, via a FORTRAN Dynamic Link Library (DLL) application.


  • Code-to-Code Benchmarking of the PORFLOW and GoldSim Contaminant Transport Models

    WM2011 Conference, Phoenix, AZ – March 2011

    Robert Hiergesell and Glenn Taylor, Savannah River National Laboratory

    An investigation was conducted to compare and evaluate contaminant transport results of two model codes, GoldSim and PORFLOW, using a simple 1-D string of elements in each code. The comparisons were made solely in terms of the ability of each code to perform contaminant transport. The purpose of the investigation was to establish a basis for, and to validate follow-on work that was conducted in which a 1-D GoldSim model developed by abstracting information from PORFLOW 2-D and 3-D unsaturated and saturated zone models and then benchmarked to produce equivalent contaminant transport results. Although prior validation and verification work has been conducted for both PORFLOW and GoldSim a direct comparison of results from both codes, when evaluating the same model domain, was conducted to confirm this work and justify the benchmarking exercises that compared 1-D to multi-dimensional models.


  • Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) for Environmental Remediation and Waste Management

    WM2012 Conference, Phoenix, AZ – February 2012

    David L. Pentz, Ralph H. Stoll, John T . Greeves, Predicus LLC; R. Ian Miller, GoldSim Technology Group; W. Mark Nutt, Argonne National Laboratory

    The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation’s nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM's projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks.


  • Understanding Controls on the Performance of Engineered Barrier Systems in Repositories for High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Fuel

    Environment Agency Report SC060055 – September 2010

    A. Bond, M.J. Egan, R. Metcalfe, P.Robinson, G.Towler (Quintessa)

    The primary aim of this report was to summarize and analyse existing knowledge on processes that could influence the performance of an EBS and hence the long-term safety performance of a repository. After reviewing the safety functions attributed to various barrier components by radioactive waste management programmes across the world, and identifying groups of features, events and processes (FEPs) that describe these safety functions and threats to these safety functions, calculations using GoldSim were carried out to explore the significance of each of these FEPs as controls on the performance of barrier components.


  • The Development of a Safety Assessment Approach and its Implication on the Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    Nuclear Engineering and Technology, Vol. 42, No. 1 – February 2010

    Yongsoo Hwang and Chul-Hyung Kang, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

    This paper discusses use of GoldSim to evaluate the potential radionuclide release from a repository based on the Advanced Korean Reference Disposal System (A-KRS). Among other advantages, the development of the A-KRS promises a significant reduction of the repository area due to the removal of decay heat from a certain number of fission products such as Sr-90 and Cs-137.


  • Modelling of Near-Field Radionuclide Transport Phenomena in a KBS-3V Type of Repository for Nuclear Waste with GoldSim Code - and Verification Against Previous Methods

    Posiva Working Report 2010-14, Posiva Oy, Finland – March 2010

    Veli-Matti Pulkkanen and Henrik Nordman

    This report describes the use of GoldSim to model the near-field radionuclide transport processes in a KBS-3V type of nuclear waste repository in Finland.


  • A GoldSim Model for the Safety Assessment of a HLW Repository

    Progress in Nuclear Energy Volume 51, Issues 6-7, pgs. 746-759 – August/September 2009

    Youn-Myong Lee and Yongsoo Hwang, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

    This article describes a GoldSim model of a hypothetical high level waste repository in South Korea, and describes the model's response to three hypothetical situations (groundwater intrusion, earthquake and accidental human intrusion).

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  • Performance Assessment for Depleted Uranium Disposal in a Near-Surface Disposal Facility

    Scientific Basis for Nuclear Waste Management XXXII, MRS Proceedings, Volume 1124 – Fall 2008

    Karen Pinkston, David W. Esh, Christopher J. Grossman

    This paper discusses a GoldSim model built by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the potential impacts of disposal of large quantities of depleted uranium in a near-surface disposal facility.


  • Development of the ENVI Simulator to Estimate Korean SNF Flow and its Cost

    Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Environmental Remediation And Radioactive Waste Management ICEM 2009 – October 2009

    Yongsoo Hwang and Ian Miller

    This paper describes an integrated model developed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea.


  • GoldSim Modeling of the West Beach Landfill, Alameda Point, California

    Neptune and Company Project Report – March 2002

    John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    This web page describes a Neptune and Company project to evaluate remediation options for the West Beach Landfill on the grounds of the former Naval Air Station Alameda.

    The page includes background on the project, and a link to a more detailed report on the model.

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  • Developing Hazardous Waste Acceptance Criteria

    Presentation – 2005

    David Hall and David Drury, Golder Associates

    This presentation describes the process of developing acceptance criteria for monolithic wastes.


  • A Comparative Study Between GoldSim and AMBER Based Biosphere Assessment Models for an HLW

    Transactions of the Korean Nuclear Society Autmn Meeting, PyeongChang, Korea – October 2007

    Youn-Myoung Lee and Yongsoo Hwang, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute

    To demonstrate the performance of a repository, GoldSim was used to examine the dose exposure rate to people due to long-term nuclide releases from a high-level waste repository and the results are compared to that of a similar model built in AMBER. The GoldSim model integrates the results of complex nuclide transport models through engineered barriers and geological fractured rock media surrounding an HLW repository site for a consecutive transport through a biosphere.


  • Update of the Safety Assessment Of The Underground Richard Repository, Litoměřice

    Conference Proceedings, WM'05 Conference, Tucson, AZ. – March 2005

    B. Haverkamp, E. Biurrun, with DBE TECHNOLOGY GmbH, and M. Kučerka with Radioactive Waste Repository Authority, Czech Republic

    The Richard Repository, situated at the outskirts of Litoměřice in the North of Czech Republic, has served as a repository for low and intermediate level institutional radioactive waste since the mid nineteen-sixties. Up to now, some 25,000 waste packages and thereby a significant activity of about 1015 Bq have been disposed of. Richard, originally a limestone mine excavated into a hill close to the Elbe River, was later used for military production leaving a number of wellconditioned underground cavities.In order to quantify the radiological consequences of the changed closure concept, the 2002 SA has been adapted to acknowledge the differences in the source term resulting from the changed technical concept. Also the previously deterministic model has been exchanged by a computer model that also allows probabilistic calculations using the GoldSim


  • Do-or-Die at Yucca Mountain

    Wired Magazine – November 2004

    David Ewing Duncan

    This Wired Magazine article provides a general overview of the Yucca Mountain project including a discussion of how GoldSim is used to try quantify the performance of the repository into the distant future.

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  • Risks and Uncertainties Associated With High-Level Waste Tank Closure

    Proceedings of the 2002 Materials Research Society Fall Meeting – Fall 2002

    David Esh, Anna Bradford, Kristina Banovac, and Jennifer Davis, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

    This paper discusses a performance assessment model of closure of a radioactive waste tank developed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, using GoldSim, to independently verify results from a Department of Energy assessment of the same project.

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  • A Systems Modeling Approach for Performance Assessment of the Mochovce National Radioactive Waste Repository, Slovak Republic

    Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 9, 05821 – 2007

    John Tauxe and Paul Black, Neptune and Company; Vaclav Hanusik, VUJE Trnava, Inc.

    This paper discusses the performance assessment of a low- and intermediate-level waste repository in the Slovak Republic.

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  • GoldSim Modeling of the Greater Confinement Disposal Boreholes

    Neptune and Company Project Report – March 2002

    John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    This webpage describes a Neptune and Company project to model the performance of borehole-type disposal of low-level nuclear waste at the Nevada Test Site. The page includes background on the project and a general discussion of the model design and structure.

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  • Management of the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site using Decision-Based, Probabilistic Performance Assessment Modeling

    Proceedings of the 2003 Waste Management Symposium – February 2003

    Jhon Carilli, U. S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office. Bruce Crowe, Los Alamos National Laboratory; Paul Black, John Tauxe, Tom Stockton, and Kate Catlett, Neptune and Company; Vefa Yucel, Bechtel Nevada

    This paper describes performance assessment activity for low-level waste facilities at the Nevada Test Site.

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  • Use of Simplified Models in the Performance Assessment of a High-Level Waste Repository System in Japan

    Proceedings of the NUCEF2005 Symposium – February 2005

    Osvaldo Pensado and Sitakanta Mohanty, Southwest Research Institute; Takeshi Kanno and Yoshikatsu Tochigi, Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.

    This paper and website describes a project to build a GoldSim model for a hypothetical high-level waste repository in Japan.


  • A Generic Example of Probabilistic Radiological Performance Assessment Modeling

    Neptune and Company Project Report –

    John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    This web page describes a generic performance assessment model developed in GoldSim for low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities.


  • Modelling of Processes Occurring in Deep Geological Repositories

    Czechoslovak Journal of Physics, Volume 56, D623-D628 – December 2006

    D. Vopálka, Czech Technical University in Prague; D. Lukin and A. Vokál, Nuclear Research Institute Rez

    This paper describes GoldSim modeling techniques for several different processes that occur in a deep geologic repository for the storage of nuclear waste.

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  • Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for the "Initial Defect in the Canister" Reference Model

    Workreport 2013-25, Posiva Oy, Eurajoki, Finland – August 2013

    Jose Luis Cormenzana

    In Posiva Oy´s Safety Case "TURVA-2012", the repository system scenarios leading to radionuclide releases were been identified. Three potential causes of canister failure and radionuclide release were considered: (i) the presence of an initial defect in the copper shell of one canister that penetrates the shell completely, (ii) corrosion of the copper overpack, that occurs more rapidly if buffer density is reduced, e.g. by erosion, (iii) shear movement on fractures intersecting the deposition hole. All three failure modes were analysed deterministically. This report describes a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) for the "initial defect in the canister" reference model.


  • SOAR: A Model For Scoping Of Options And Analyzing Risk Version 1.0 User Guide

    Report prepared for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Contract No. NRC–02–07–006 – August 2011

    Chris Markely et al. (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission)

    This document is a user guide that describes the operation and capabilities of the Scoping of Options and Analyzing Risk (SOAR) model. The SOAR model is designed to provide the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff timely risk and performance insights for a variety of potential high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal options. The SOAR model is an analytic scoping tool that the staff will use to develop an effective and efficient risk-informed, performance-based licensing program for geologic disposal of HLW.


  • The 2011 Environmental Safety Case: Assessment of Long-Term Radiological Impacts

    LLWR/ESC/R(11)10028 – May 2011

    LLW Repository Ltd

    The Low Level Waste Repository (LLWR) is the United Kingdom’s principal facility for the disposal of solid low-level radioactive waste. The LLWR is owned by the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) and operated on behalf of the NDA by a Site Licence Company (SLC) – LLW Repository Ltd.

    This report is one of a series of reports that present the evidence underpinning the 2011 Environmental Safety Case for the LLWR – the 2011 ESC. The objective of this report is to assess the radiological impacts to humans that may occur in the long term, as a result of disposal of solid radioactive waste at the LLWR.


  • Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) For Environmental Remediation and Waste Management

    WM2012 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA – February 26 – March 1, 2012

    David L. Pentz, Ralph H. Stoll, John T. Greeves, R. Ian Miller, and W. Mark Nutt

    The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy’s Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation’s nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM’s projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks. The underlying concept for PRISM is that DOE-EM “owns” a portfolio of environmental legacy obligations (ELOs), and that its mission is to transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, in the most effective way possible. There are many types of ELOs - - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D&D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. For a given suite of planned activities, PRISM simulates the outcomes as they play out over time, allowing for all key identified uncertainties and risk factors.

    PRISM is based on the GoldSim software that is widely used for risk and performance assessment calculations. PRISM can be run in a deterministic mode, which quickly provides an estimate of the most likely results of a given plan. Alternatively, the model can be run probabilistically in a Monte Carlo mode, exploring the risks and uncertainties in the system and producing probability distributions for the different performance measures.