Probabilistic Risk Assessment of a Lunar Base Station

Probabilistic Risk Assessment of a Lunar Base Station

In this training model, a hypothetical NASA lunar base was simulated for its 20-year design life. Each of the major base subsystems is susceptible to breakdowns, in addition to a variety of disruptive events that could occur. The model illustrates the versatility of the simulation approach for evaluating systems that traditionally might use a fault-tree methodology.

As an example of the dynamic complexity represented in the model, in one component of the model, the crew's reaction to an emergency situation is simulated. Both the amount of time before the crew's response and their ability to take the correct actions are assessed. Another component of the model evaluates the impact of the number of spare air filters that are stocked in the base, and seeks an optimum that balances the cost of storing extra spares against the risks and costs of an emergency due to running out.

Lunar Training Model

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Development of a Dynamic Simulation Approach to Mission Risk and Reliability Analysis

A Dynamic Simulation Approach to Reliability Modeling and Risk Assessment Using GoldSim