Business Systems Applications

Strategic Planning

Using Simulation to Support Strategic Planning

Strategic Planning

Strategic planning typically involves development and evaluation of one or more alternative strategies to identify the approach that offers the greatest potential for success. When strategic planning is dependent on complex systems that are highly uncertain, even the most sophisticated strategic planners often conclude that the unknowns are insurmountable and end up making a decision based on intuition.

By combining the flexibility of a general-purpose and highly-graphical probabilistic simulation framework with specialized features to support financial modeling, GoldSim allows you to create quantitative and transparent business models to support your strategic planning efforts and make better decisions in the face of uncertainty.

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Some of GoldSim’s key features that make this possible include the ability to:

  • Incorporate variability and uncertainty. If your strategic planning efforts are challenged by lack of information regarding how your system operates or future conditions, GoldSim makes it easy to incorporate variability and uncertainty into your simulations.
  • Represent random discrete events. In many strategic planning efforts, certain events or developments could completely change the outcome of certain strategic decisions. GoldSim has the capability to represent random discrete events, such as new technological advances, lawsuits, or natural disasters, that can play a critical role in determining which strategic approach is most effective.
  • Build top-down hierarchical models. GoldSim allows you to construct hierarchical multi-layer models that represent greater detail at lower levels in the model structure. As a result, you can build, explore, and explain highly complex strategic planning models without losing sight of the big picture.
  • Dynamically link to external data repositories. Strategic planning simulations should be based on current information. For large models with large amounts of input data, it can be labor-intensive and burdensome to enter data manually each time you want to update the model. GoldSim offers the ability to link to ERP and other database systems that represent the most recent information.
  • Create easy-to-understand presentations that effectively communicate the structure of your model and the results. The best-designed strategic plans probably won’t be implemented if your audience doesn’t understand them. GoldSim’s user-friendly graphical interface provides you with the tools to communicate with and convince your audience.

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White Papers

Technical Papers

  • Impact of technical and economic uncertainties on the economic performance of a deep geothermal heat system

    Renewable Energy – December 2017

    Alexandros Daniilidis, Betül Alpsoy, and Rien Herber, University of Groningen

    This paper presents a techno-economic analysis of a deep, direct use geothermal heat system in a conductive geological setting (Groningen, NE Netherlands). The model integrates the previously discussed uncertainties of the initial reservoir state, geological and operational conditions with the economic uncertainties. These uncertainties are incorporated in the form of probability distributions and 20,000 iterations of the model are performed over a project lifetime of 40 years. A combination of Ex-Ante and Ex-Post criteria are used to evaluate the economic performance of the system based on the Net Present Value (NPV), Levelised Cost of Heat (LCOH) and Expected Monetary Value (EMV).

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  • Development of an Execution Strategy Analysis Capability and Tool for Storage of Used Nuclear Fuel

    Publication for the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA-CN-226-34 – June 2015

    R. Stoll, J. Greeves, and J. Voss with Predicus LLC, USA; A. Keizur and A. Neir with Golder Associates Inc., USA; N. Saraeva and W. Nutt with Argonne National Laboratory, USA

    An Execution Strategy Analysis (ESA) capability and tool is being developed to evaluate alternative execution strategies for future deployment of a consolidated Interim Storage Facility (ISF) using a consent-based siting process per the Administration’s Strategy for the Management and Disposal of Used Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste. Application of an ESA approach not only leverages on but also goes beyond traditional project analysis tools. The ESA tool allows for on-going performance assessment of the evolving project execution plan that takes into account significant assumptions, risks, and uncertainties throughout the project lifecycle. The ESA process and tool are used to support the development of plans, budgets, and alternative execution/ implementation strategies for meeting the goals in the Strategy. The project is being applied in a dynamic probabilistic simulation model using GoldSim.

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  • Impact of Dynamic Characteristics of Supply Chain on Own-account Fleet Size in the Optimal Transport Sourcing Mix

    Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences – February 2014

    Ðurdica Stojanovic, Emilija Nikolic-Ðoric, University of Novi Sad

    This paper explores the impact of time demand characteristics in supply chain on role of own-account fleet in the optimal transport sourcing mix. Multiple regression analysis was used to evaluate the simulation and optimization results, and the historical database of a real trade company. The regression analysis reveals that the certain indicators of demand variability and uncertainty directly impact on the optimal number of vehicles in own-account fleet. Further, the intercept in regression equation for the dependent variable number of own-account vehicles can be expressed as the function of daily demands and fleet characteristics.

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  • Cost-Benefit Analysis of Policies for the Development of Electric Vehicles in Germany: Methods and Results

    Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Department of Economics Working Paper, ISSN: 1827/3580 No. 02/WP/2013 – January 2013

    Jerome Massiani with Universita Ca' Foscari di Venezia and Jorg Radeke of Berlin Economics GmbH

    Policies toward the diffusion of Electric Vehicles (EV) received a lot of attention in recent years in many developed countries. In this paper, we review different existing models and present a simulation tool for the assessment of EV policies in Germany. This model, which was built in GoldSim incorporates detailed representation of the various technological, behavioral and economical mechanisms that govern the possible diffusion of EV in Germany.

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  • Colorado River Planning and Modeling

    Online Presentation, ASU Decision Center – January 2013

    Mohammed Mahmoud, Central Arizona Project

    This presentation is a summary of Central Arizona Project's "On-River Model", which was built in GoldSim to analyze system capacity in response to seasonal variations in demand, canal and reservoir operation rules, and optimization of power consumption.

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  • Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) For Environmental Remediation and Waste Management

    WM2012 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA – February 2012

    David L. Pentz, Ralph H. Stoll, John T. Greeves, R. Ian Miller, and W. Mark Nutt

    The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy’s Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation’s nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM’s projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks. The underlying concept for PRISM is that DOE-EM “owns” a portfolio of environmental legacy obligations (ELOs), and that its mission is to transform the ELOs from their current conditions to acceptable conditions, in the most effective way possible. There are many types of ELOs - - contaminated soils and groundwater plumes, disused facilities awaiting D&D, and various types of wastes waiting for processing or disposal. For a given suite of planned activities, PRISM simulates the outcomes as they play out over time, allowing for all key identified uncertainties and risk factors.

    PRISM is based on the GoldSim software that is widely used for risk and performance assessment calculations. PRISM can be run in a deterministic mode, which quickly provides an estimate of the most likely results of a given plan. Alternatively, the model can be run probabilistically in a Monte Carlo mode, exploring the risks and uncertainties in the system and producing probability distributions for the different performance measures.

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  • Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model (PRISM) for Environmental Remediation and Waste Management

    WM2012 Conference, Phoenix, AZ – February 2012

    David L. Pentz, Ralph H. Stoll, John T . Greeves, Predicus LLC; R. Ian Miller, GoldSim Technology Group; W. Mark Nutt, Argonne National Laboratory

    The PRISM (Prioritization Risk Integration Simulation Model), a computer model was developed to support the Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) in its mission to clean up the environmental legacy from the Nation’s nuclear weapons materials production complex. PRISM provides a comprehensive, fully integrated planning tool that can tie together DOE-EM's projects. It is designed to help DOE managers develop sound, risk-informed business practices and defend program decisions. It provides a better ability to understand and manage programmatic risks.

    View Paper or Abstract

  • SOAR: A Model For Scoping Of Options And Analyzing Risk Version 1.0 User Guide

    Report prepared for U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Contract No. NRC–02–07–006 – August 2011

    Chris Markley et al. (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission)

    This document is a user guide that describes the operation and capabilities of the Scoping of Options and Analyzing Risk (SOAR) model. The SOAR model is designed to provide the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff timely risk and performance insights for a variety of potential high-level radioactive waste (HLW) disposal options. The SOAR model is an analytic scoping tool that the staff will use to develop an effective and efficient risk-informed, performance-based licensing program for geologic disposal of HLW.

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  • Risk-Based Performance Assessment of Large Projects

    WM2010 Conference – March 2010

    John T. Greeves and Ralph Stoll, Predicus LLC, John Tauxe, Neptune and Company

    Government and commercial nuclear projects have been criticized for the lack of a formal risk-based decision support tool for use in properly prioritizing large projects with significant uncertainties. Predicus LLC collaborated with the GoldSim Technology Group LLC to develop this state-of-the-art process to address this need for both government and commercial clients. Predicus LLC was supported by Neptune and Company to develop the specific example shown in this paper.

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  • Development of the ENVI Simulator to Estimate Korean SNF Flow and its Cost

    Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Environmental Remediation And Radioactive Waste Management ICEM 2009 – October 2009

    Yongsoo Hwang and Ian Miller

    This paper describes an integrated model developed by the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) to simulate options for managing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in South Korea.

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  • The Environmental and Economic Benefits of Highway Access Management: A Multivariate Analysis Using System Dynamics

    Master's Thesis, University of Nevada – December 2008

    Dan Andersen, CH2M Hill

    As population growth increases, additional demands are placed on existing highway systems. Reconfiguring intersections and roadways to limit the number of access points to a particular roadway reduces congestion and has been shown to increase safety. This paper describes a GoldSim model that was created to try and quantify the environmental benefits (due to reduced emissions) and the economic impacts on businesses in areas where access management techniques were applied.

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  • Valuation Of A Turnover Management HRM Policy Bundle Using Monte Carlo Simulated Real Options

    Proceedings of the SimTecT 2008 Simulation Conference and Exhibition – May 2008

    David Urquhart and Debbie Richards, Macquarie University

    The field of Human Resource Management (HRM) addresses issues such as staff costs, performance and turnover – all of which have a basis in uncertainty. In this paper we employ GoldSim Monte Carlo simulated real options to determine the value of HRM policies.

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  • Modeling of Coal Combustion Products (CCP) Management Options at a Coal-fired Power Plant

    Proceedings of the 2003 International Ash Utilization Symposium – April 2005

    Todd Stong and Ron Jorgenson, Golder Associates; Russ Nelson and Tony Stroh, Great River Energy

    This paper describes a model built to evaluate management plans for coal combustion process in light of market conditions and pending EPA regulations.

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