Modeling Losses through a System of Pumps


Example of Calculating Production Losses Using the Reliability Module Elements


This is a simple model of how one would calculate losses through a set of three parallel pumps, each with failures and repairs. The model provides an example of calculating production losses using the Reliability Module elements.

The performance of a system of three 3,330 bpd pumps over 25 years is simulated. Each pump is an identical Reliability Module Function element which uses an exponential failure with a mean time to failure of 1000 days. Upon failure, the pump is repaired according to an exponential distribution with mean of 6 hours. The system is run for 100 Monte Carlo realizations.

This model calculates the actual flow through the pumps, and also calculates the difference between that flow and the flow if all three pumps were operating. The difference is integrated to provide an indication of total production losses over the 25 year duration of the model. The Result element "LP_Time_History" provides a summary of the lost production during the 25 year simulation duration across all 100 realizations.

Three Reliability Module Function elements ("Pump_1", "Pump_2", and "Pump_3") are used in this simulation. A feature of the elements available in the Reliability Module is the Results tab in the element Properties dialog which contains additional summary results and access to detailed reliability results and analyses for the element. On the Results tab, the "Summary" portion of the dialog automatically displays the key reliability metrics after a simulation is run. The "Analysis Options" portion of the dialog provides three additional types of analyses (Causal Analysis, Failure Times and Repair Times). The Participate in global export of reliability results checkbox also allows you to indicate whether the element’s Summary statistics should be exported (to a spreadsheet) during a global reliability results export.


Making Better Decisions In An Uncertain World