Estimate the Risk of a Dam Breach Using Monte Carlo Simulation


A dam is simulated under a breach conditions. The simulation begins with the assumption that a breach is initiated and thus progresses during the simultion until all the water in the reservoir is evacuated. The inflow to the reservoir during the breach is assumed to be negligible. When the dam breaks, a flood hydrograph is produced and routed down a long channel. If the peak flow in the downstream channel exceeds 500,000 cfs, it is considered a failure as property along the banks of the channel will be damaged. If failure occurs, the cost of repair is estimated to be $300 million. The expected opportunity loss is calculated as a function of the risk, where the risk is multiplied by the failure cost.

The submodel "Flood_Risk_Model" is where the reservoir and downstream channel is simulated. The submodel is running inside this main goldSim model. The only purpose of the main model is to capture the risk of flood damage as a percent. Risk is calculated by running the submodel for many realizations with each realization using stochastic dam breach parameters.


Making Better Decisions In An Uncertain World