Annual Demand Forecast Submodel


Run a Forecasting Submodel Each Year to Determine Annual Supply Curtailments


This model demonstrates the use of a submodel to perform an annual forecast in order to allocate water supply at the beginning of each year. The main model simulates a reservoir that delivers water to downstream water demands and to fulfill instream flow requirements. This model runs for many years. At the beginning of each year (each October), a forecast submodel runs to find out if the demand for the upcoming water year should be curtailed to prevent draining the reservoir too far. When the forecast predicts a low minimum storage level, the demand is curtailed by 20% for the year. Another forecast is done the following October and the process is repeated, each year of the main model. The logic in the submodel is essentially an exact duplication of the logic in the main model.

This model is intended to be run in Scenario mode. Type "F7" to enter the Scenario Manager and run the following scenarios to compare the differences in results with and without using the forecast submodel.

Scenario 1 = with forecast

Scenario 2 = without forecast


Making Better Decisions In An Uncertain World