Brief Summaries of GoldSim Business Systems Modeling Applications
Regional Input-Output (Economic) Model
An “input-output model” is a quantitative economic methodology that incorporates influences and interdependencies between various components of a national or regional economy. Geografia, an economic and demographic consulting firm in Australia, developed a generic framework in GoldSim to facilitate these types of input-output models, which have been successfully applied to multiple studies. These implementations make use of GoldSim’s powerful dynamic framework and probabilistic simulation platform, efficiently enabling realistic ‘what if’ scenario analyses. This article describes one of these model applications, which was built for Blacktown City, located in western Sydney, Australia.
City of Melbourne’s Population Forecasts
GoldSim was used to simulate 20-year population projections for the City of Melbourne, Australia. The results from this model are published on the City’s interactive website, here: melbournepopulation.geografia.com.au. The model incorporates uncertainty in national, state and local migration trends and other factors such as dwelling development, household size and occupancy rates. It outputs projections by single year of age, by gender and suburb using arrays of interacting datasets. Aging chains are used to simulate the movement of people by their respective age and gender.
Using GoldSim to Forecast Electricity Demand from Iron Ore Mines
This model describes how GoldSim was used to forecast electricity demand from new iron ore mines in the Mid West region of Western Australia. An accurate forecast was required to estimate the size of new demand from greenfield iron ore mines and assist in demonstrating the need for a new 330 kV transmission line.
Project Simulation: Construction of a New Nuclear Power Plant
GoldSim can readily simulate the performance of complex projects, adding a dimension of realism that is not available with other project management software. In collaboration with Predicus LLC, an example model was developed to illustrate this capability. The model represents a proposed project by an electrical utility to construct a new nuclear power plant. The model simulates three key phases in the project’s development, incorporating all of the risk and financial factors that could come into play over the up to 18-year duration of the project.
Automobile Supply Chain Demonstration Model
This model (available in the GoldSim Model Library) demonstrates how GoldSim can be applied to supply chain management. This particular model includes sub-models for demand forecasting, material management, production scheduling, manufacturing, and delivery management. The external driver to the system is the rate at which dealers order new vehicles. The model allows you to experiment with various dealer order scenarios. The objective of this simplified model was to demonstrate the impacts of several key information delays within the system, and determine whether implementing procedures to reduce these delays would significantly improve overall performance.
Pricing Mechanisms in Packet-Switched Communication Networks
In recent years, several pricing models which address the problem of Internet congestion have been studied. Pricing models can be studied and evaluated through simulation. Communication networks are typically simulated using discrete event and queuing systems. A GoldSim model was built in which the traffic in the communication network was represented as a flow of data between network nodes, demonstrating that a system dynamics approach to simulation of such systems is viable and has some distinct advantages.
Simulating an Entire Market: Long-Haul Trucks
The objective of this model was to better understand the dynamics of the long-haul truck market. In particular, how would decisions regarding new truck pricing impact future truck sales and prices? How would the current system likely to evolve over the next few years? In order to answer these questions the model was constructed to simulate the number of active and used trucks in each age category, the price of new and used trucks, and the sales rate of new trucks, all as a function of time.
Economic Analysis of Manufacturing Business Opportunities
The Centre for Automotive Materials and Manufacturing (CAMM) at Queens University coupled GoldSim with spreadsheet models to develop a platform for supporting supply chain design and management, and carrying out economic analysis of manufacturing business opportunities. The example discussed here applies the approach to a polymer component plant.
Yellowstone National Park Strategic Planning
As part of the Greater Yellowstone Works project, GoldSim was used as part of the decision making process to evaluate alternatives on a range of issues, such as simulation of traffic flow through the North Loop in the Canyon area and examination of the impacts on infrastructure demands due to changes in the number of visitors and concessionaires.
Strategic Planning for an Industrial Water Treatment Facility
An industrial facility was faced with the problem of upgrading their effluent treatment technology in order to stay within regulatory compliance. The process of upgrading the facility was quite complex and expensive and a total of nine of these strategies were defined and analyzed by simulating each of them using GoldSim.
The Environmental and Economic Impacts of Highway Access Control Techniques
As population growth increases, additional demands are placed on existing highway systems. Reconfiguring intersections and roadways to limit the number of access points to a particular roadway reduces congestion and has been shown to increase safety. GoldSim was used to quantify the environmental benefits (due to reduced emissions) and the economic impacts on businesses in areas where access management techniques were applied.